Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate maximum temperatures in Tel Aviv on September 4 will reach 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean climatology. Numerical guidance from WeatherBug, WindBorne, and Yr.no converges on afternoon highs near 31–32°C with low precipitation risk and humidity around 55–65%, positioning 32°C as the market’s dominant outcome at 66.5% implied probability. Minor model spread leaves limited room for 33°C (18.5%), while cooler or hotter extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns and absence of anomalous heat advection. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 4?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 4?
32°C 67%
33°C 19%
31°C 6%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
6%
31°C
6%
32°C
67%
33°C
19%
34°C
4%
35°C
4%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 67%
33°C 19%
31°C 6%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
1%
30°C
$76 Vol.
6%
31°C
$11 Vol.
6%
32°C
$141 Vol.
67%
33°C
$11 Vol.
19%
34°C
$92 Vol.
4%
35°C
$20 Vol.
4%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$211 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate maximum temperatures in Tel Aviv on September 4 will reach 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean climatology. Numerical guidance from WeatherBug, WindBorne, and Yr.no converges on afternoon highs near 31–32°C with low precipitation risk and humidity around 55–65%, positioning 32°C as the market’s dominant outcome at 66.5% implied probability. Minor model spread leaves limited room for 33°C (18.5%), while cooler or hotter extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns and absence of anomalous heat advection. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$774End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate maximum temperatures in Tel Aviv on September 4 will reach 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean climatology. Numerical guidance from WeatherBug, WindBorne, and Yr.no converges on afternoon highs near 31–32°C with low precipitation risk and humidity around 55–65%, positioning 32°C as the market’s dominant outcome at 66.5% implied probability. Minor model spread leaves limited room for 33°C (18.5%), while cooler or hotter extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns and absence of anomalous heat advection. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$774End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate maximum temperatures in Tel Aviv on September 4 will reach 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, consistent with late-summer Mediterranean climatology. Numerical guidance from WeatherBug, WindBorne, and Yr.no converges on afternoon highs near 31–32°C with low precipitation risk and humidity around 55–65%, positioning 32°C as the market’s dominant outcome at 66.5% implied probability. Minor model spread leaves limited room for 33°C (18.5%), while cooler or hotter extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns and absence of anomalous heat advection. Updated runs ahead of the date will refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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