Recent JMA and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 25 points to a daily minimum near 26–27 °C, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge sustaining southerly warm-moist advection and dew points above 24 °C that suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds under partly cloudy skies further limit temperature drops, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~23 °C after the recent rainy spell. Traders have priced the 27 °C outcome highest because the latest 48-hour model runs show little change in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture ahead of any weak frontal passage later in the week. Resolution hinges on the official JMA minimum recorded at the Tokyo station, with modest downside risk if unexpected clear skies enhance cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
27°C 45%
28°C 26%
26°C 16%
25°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
6%
24°C
11%
25°C
14%
26°C
21%
27°C
45%
28°C
26%
29°C
11%
30°C
7%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 45%
28°C 26%
26°C 16%
25°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
22°C
$5 Vol.
5%
23°C
$5 Vol.
6%
24°C
$10 Vol.
11%
25°C
$41 Vol.
14%
26°C
$62 Vol.
21%
27°C
$70 Vol.
45%
28°C
$165 Vol.
26%
29°C
$5 Vol.
11%
30°C
$5 Vol.
7%
31°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 25 points to a daily minimum near 26–27 °C, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge sustaining southerly warm-moist advection and dew points above 24 °C that suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds under partly cloudy skies further limit temperature drops, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~23 °C after the recent rainy spell. Traders have priced the 27 °C outcome highest because the latest 48-hour model runs show little change in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture ahead of any weak frontal passage later in the week. Resolution hinges on the official JMA minimum recorded at the Tokyo station, with modest downside risk if unexpected clear skies enhance cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$378End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 25 points to a daily minimum near 26–27 °C, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge sustaining southerly warm-moist advection and dew points above 24 °C that suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds under partly cloudy skies further limit temperature drops, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~23 °C after the recent rainy spell. Traders have priced the 27 °C outcome highest because the latest 48-hour model runs show little change in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture ahead of any weak frontal passage later in the week. Resolution hinges on the official JMA minimum recorded at the Tokyo station, with modest downside risk if unexpected clear skies enhance cooling.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$378End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA and ensemble model guidance for Tokyo on August 25 points to a daily minimum near 26–27 °C, driven by a persistent subtropical ridge sustaining southerly warm-moist advection and dew points above 24 °C that suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. Light winds under partly cloudy skies further limit temperature drops, keeping overnight lows several degrees above the late-August climatological average of ~23 °C after the recent rainy spell. Traders have priced the 27 °C outcome highest because the latest 48-hour model runs show little change in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture ahead of any weak frontal passage later in the week. Resolution hinges on the official JMA minimum recorded at the Tokyo station, with modest downside risk if unexpected clear skies enhance cooling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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