**Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds are expected to moderate overnight cooling in Tokyo on September 5, 2026, supporting market-implied odds favoring a low near 21–22°C.** Numerical weather models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency show continued overcast conditions and light rain associated with a frontal system, which reduces radiative heat loss and keeps minimum temperatures from dropping below recent seasonal norms around 20–22°C. High humidity and steady winds further limit diurnal temperature swings. Recent model runs have shown little change in this pattern over the past 24–48 hours, aligning trader consensus with the 47.5% probability on 22°C and 33.5% on 21°C. Updated short-range forecasts and observational data closer to the date will provide the next key inputs for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 5?
22°C 48%
21°C 34%
23°C 27%
18°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
14%
18°C
16%
19°C
16%
20°C
8%
21°C
34%
22°C
48%
23°C
27%
24°C
8%
25°C
8%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
2%
22°C 48%
21°C 34%
23°C 27%
18°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C
$0 Vol.
16%
19°C
$0 Vol.
16%
20°C
$248 Vol.
8%
21°C
$0 Vol.
34%
22°C
$34 Vol.
48%
23°C
$0 Vol.
27%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds are expected to moderate overnight cooling in Tokyo on September 5, 2026, supporting market-implied odds favoring a low near 21–22°C.**
Numerical weather models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency show continued overcast conditions and light rain associated with a frontal system, which reduces radiative heat loss and keeps minimum temperatures from dropping below recent seasonal norms around 20–22°C. High humidity and steady winds further limit diurnal temperature swings. Recent model runs have shown little change in this pattern over the past 24–48 hours, aligning trader consensus with the 47.5% probability on 22°C and 33.5% on 21°C. Updated short-range forecasts and observational data closer to the date will provide the next key inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$282End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds are expected to moderate overnight cooling in Tokyo on September 5, 2026, supporting market-implied odds favoring a low near 21–22°C.**
Numerical weather models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency show continued overcast conditions and light rain associated with a frontal system, which reduces radiative heat loss and keeps minimum temperatures from dropping below recent seasonal norms around 20–22°C. High humidity and steady winds further limit diurnal temperature swings. Recent model runs have shown little change in this pattern over the past 24–48 hours, aligning trader consensus with the 47.5% probability on 22°C and 33.5% on 21°C. Updated short-range forecasts and observational data closer to the date will provide the next key inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$282End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds are expected to moderate overnight cooling in Tokyo on September 5, 2026, supporting market-implied odds favoring a low near 21–22°C.** Numerical weather models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency show continued overcast conditions and light rain associated with a frontal system, which reduces radiative heat loss and keeps minimum temperatures from dropping below recent seasonal norms around 20–22°C. High humidity and steady winds further limit diurnal temperature swings. Recent model runs have shown little change in this pattern over the past 24–48 hours, aligning trader consensus with the 47.5% probability on 22°C and 33.5% on 21°C. Updated short-range forecasts and observational data closer to the date will provide the next key inputs for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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