Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate Wellington's overnight low on August 25 will likely hover near 10–11°C under northwesterly flows and clearing skies, aligning with seasonal norms of 6–9°C minima but tempered by current high-pressure dominance. Trader balance between 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes at 46.5% each reflects uncertainty over potential late cold-front intrusions or southerly wind shifts, which can rapidly drop temperatures via advection of Antarctic air masses, versus sustained milder northerlies. Specific temperature bins clustered around 11–14°C capture the central forecast range while acknowledging model spread in cloud cover and wind strength. Updated guidance from official agencies will drive any near-term shifts as the event window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
18°C or higher 85%
8°C or below 84%
12°C 31%
11°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
84%
9°C
25%
10°C
25%
11°C
29%
12°C
31%
13°C
26%
14°C
25%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
85%
18°C or higher 85%
8°C or below 84%
12°C 31%
11°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
84%
9°C
$0 Vol.
25%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$0 Vol.
31%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$1 Vol.
25%
15°C
$5 Vol.
2%
16°C
$5 Vol.
8%
17°C
$5 Vol.
8%
18°C or higher
$5 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate Wellington's overnight low on August 25 will likely hover near 10–11°C under northwesterly flows and clearing skies, aligning with seasonal norms of 6–9°C minima but tempered by current high-pressure dominance. Trader balance between 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes at 46.5% each reflects uncertainty over potential late cold-front intrusions or southerly wind shifts, which can rapidly drop temperatures via advection of Antarctic air masses, versus sustained milder northerlies. Specific temperature bins clustered around 11–14°C capture the central forecast range while acknowledging model spread in cloud cover and wind strength. Updated guidance from official agencies will drive any near-term shifts as the event window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$26End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate Wellington's overnight low on August 25 will likely hover near 10–11°C under northwesterly flows and clearing skies, aligning with seasonal norms of 6–9°C minima but tempered by current high-pressure dominance. Trader balance between 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes at 46.5% each reflects uncertainty over potential late cold-front intrusions or southerly wind shifts, which can rapidly drop temperatures via advection of Antarctic air masses, versus sustained milder northerlies. Specific temperature bins clustered around 11–14°C capture the central forecast range while acknowledging model spread in cloud cover and wind strength. Updated guidance from official agencies will drive any near-term shifts as the event window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate Wellington's overnight low on August 25 will likely hover near 10–11°C under northwesterly flows and clearing skies, aligning with seasonal norms of 6–9°C minima but tempered by current high-pressure dominance. Trader balance between 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes at 46.5% each reflects uncertainty over potential late cold-front intrusions or southerly wind shifts, which can rapidly drop temperatures via advection of Antarctic air masses, versus sustained milder northerlies. Specific temperature bins clustered around 11–14°C capture the central forecast range while acknowledging model spread in cloud cover and wind strength. Updated guidance from official agencies will drive any near-term shifts as the event window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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