Meta’s Watermelon model, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after Muse Spark (codenamed Avocado), remains the main driver of trader sentiment. In a July 2026 internal town hall, Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated the model—still in training—had reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on Meta’s internal benchmarks while using roughly 10× more compute. An August report citing internal documents targeted an October 2026 release tied to the paid Hatch agent platform, and Zuckerberg teased the codename publicly in early September. However, the September 23 Meta Connect keynote featured no launch or weights release, with executives framing Muse Spark updates as an interim step and noting pre-training pauses that pushed timelines. Traders are weighing Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend and competitive pressure against the absence of public verification or firm external benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$56,643 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
73%
November 30
89%
October 15
55%
$56,643 Vol.
September 30
$23,157 Vol.
5%
October 31
$22,753 Vol.
73%
November 30
$10,456 Vol.
89%
October 15
$277 Vol.
55%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon model, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after Muse Spark (codenamed Avocado), remains the main driver of trader sentiment. In a July 2026 internal town hall, Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated the model—still in training—had reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on Meta’s internal benchmarks while using roughly 10× more compute. An August report citing internal documents targeted an October 2026 release tied to the paid Hatch agent platform, and Zuckerberg teased the codename publicly in early September. However, the September 23 Meta Connect keynote featured no launch or weights release, with executives framing Muse Spark updates as an interim step and noting pre-training pauses that pushed timelines. Traders are weighing Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend and competitive pressure against the absence of public verification or firm external benchmarks.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$56,643End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon model, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after Muse Spark (codenamed Avocado), remains the main driver of trader sentiment. In a July 2026 internal town hall, Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated the model—still in training—had reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on Meta’s internal benchmarks while using roughly 10× more compute. An August report citing internal documents targeted an October 2026 release tied to the paid Hatch agent platform, and Zuckerberg teased the codename publicly in early September. However, the September 23 Meta Connect keynote featured no launch or weights release, with executives framing Muse Spark updates as an interim step and noting pre-training pauses that pushed timelines. Traders are weighing Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend and competitive pressure against the absence of public verification or firm external benchmarks.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$56,643End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Meta’s Watermelon model, the internal codename for the next frontier large language model after Muse Spark (codenamed Avocado), remains the main driver of trader sentiment. In a July 2026 internal town hall, Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang stated the model—still in training—had reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on Meta’s internal benchmarks while using roughly 10× more compute. An August report citing internal documents targeted an October 2026 release tied to the paid Hatch agent platform, and Zuckerberg teased the codename publicly in early September. However, the September 23 Meta Connect keynote featured no launch or weights release, with executives framing Muse Spark updates as an interim step and noting pre-training pauses that pushed timelines. Traders are weighing Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend and competitive pressure against the absence of public verification or firm external benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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