Trader sentiment heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation at Heathrow Airport for April 2026, with a 67.3% implied probability, driven by exceptionally dry conditions observed so far—cumulative rainfall of just 1.5mm through April 16 at nearby London stations, per local meteorological records, against a long-term monthly average of around 42mm. This stark deficit stems from persistent high pressure dominating southern England since early April, delivering record warmth including 26.5°C in Kew Gardens on April 8 and suppressing Atlantic moisture inflows that typically fuel spring showers. Met Office forecasts indicate continued settled patterns with low precipitation probabilities through month's end, though model ensembles acknowledge potential for isolated late-month showers; daily updates will refine resolution risks as the market nears close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in London in April?
Precipitation in London in April?
<20mm 67.3%
40-50mm 11.7%
30-40mm 7%
50-60mm 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<20mm
67%
20-30mm
1%
30-40mm
7%
40-50mm
12%
50-60mm
6%
60-70mm
2%
70mm+
3%
<20mm 67.3%
40-50mm 11.7%
30-40mm 7%
50-60mm 5.5%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<20mm
$2,243 Vol.
67%
20-30mm
$673 Vol.
1%
30-40mm
$1,108 Vol.
7%
40-50mm
$1,112 Vol.
12%
50-60mm
$1,843 Vol.
6%
60-70mm
$806 Vol.
2%
70mm+
$1,127 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation at Heathrow Airport for April 2026, with a 67.3% implied probability, driven by exceptionally dry conditions observed so far—cumulative rainfall of just 1.5mm through April 16 at nearby London stations, per local meteorological records, against a long-term monthly average of around 42mm. This stark deficit stems from persistent high pressure dominating southern England since early April, delivering record warmth including 26.5°C in Kew Gardens on April 8 and suppressing Atlantic moisture inflows that typically fuel spring showers. Met Office forecasts indicate continued settled patterns with low precipitation probabilities through month's end, though model ensembles acknowledge potential for isolated late-month showers; daily updates will refine resolution risks as the market nears close.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$8,912End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation at Heathrow Airport for April 2026, with a 67.3% implied probability, driven by exceptionally dry conditions observed so far—cumulative rainfall of just 1.5mm through April 16 at nearby London stations, per local meteorological records, against a long-term monthly average of around 42mm. This stark deficit stems from persistent high pressure dominating southern England since early April, delivering record warmth including 26.5°C in Kew Gardens on April 8 and suppressing Atlantic moisture inflows that typically fuel spring showers. Met Office forecasts indicate continued settled patterns with low precipitation probabilities through month's end, though model ensembles acknowledge potential for isolated late-month showers; daily updates will refine resolution risks as the market nears close.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,912End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation at Heathrow Airport for April 2026, with a 67.3% implied probability, driven by exceptionally dry conditions observed so far—cumulative rainfall of just 1.5mm through April 16 at nearby London stations, per local meteorological records, against a long-term monthly average of around 42mm. This stark deficit stems from persistent high pressure dominating southern England since early April, delivering record warmth including 26.5°C in Kew Gardens on April 8 and suppressing Atlantic moisture inflows that typically fuel spring showers. Met Office forecasts indicate continued settled patterns with low precipitation probabilities through month's end, though model ensembles acknowledge potential for isolated late-month showers; daily updates will refine resolution risks as the market nears close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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