Universal and Illumination's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dominated its second weekend with $69 million domestically—a 47% drop from its $132 million three-day opening—pushing the 12-day cume to $310 million, but signaling softer legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's 37% sophomore decline. Mixed critical reception (44% Rotten Tomatoes) and an incoming wide release for Lee Cronin's The Mummy ($17-22 million projected debut) have traders pricing a 94.7% implied probability of under $44 million for the third frame, aligning with tracking estimates of $35-45 million. Despite solid audience scores (A- CinemaScore) and no major four-quadrant rival, an upset into $44-48 million would require stronger-than-expected holds from family turnout or new competition flops, with final tallies locking Sunday, April 19.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office
<44m 94.7%
44-48m 3.7%
>52m <1%
48-52m <1%
$38,381 Vol.
$38,381 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
<44m
95%
44-48m
4%
48-52m
<1%
>52m
1%
<44m 94.7%
44-48m 3.7%
>52m <1%
48-52m <1%
$38,381 Vol.
$38,381 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
<44m
$3,376 Vol.
95%
44-48m
$5,091 Vol.
4%
48-52m
$8,062 Vol.
<1%
>52m
$21,852 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Universal and Illumination's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dominated its second weekend with $69 million domestically—a 47% drop from its $132 million three-day opening—pushing the 12-day cume to $310 million, but signaling softer legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's 37% sophomore decline. Mixed critical reception (44% Rotten Tomatoes) and an incoming wide release for Lee Cronin's The Mummy ($17-22 million projected debut) have traders pricing a 94.7% implied probability of under $44 million for the third frame, aligning with tracking estimates of $35-45 million. Despite solid audience scores (A- CinemaScore) and no major four-quadrant rival, an upset into $44-48 million would require stronger-than-expected holds from family turnout or new competition flops, with final tallies locking Sunday, April 19.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$38,381End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Universal and Illumination's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dominated its second weekend with $69 million domestically—a 47% drop from its $132 million three-day opening—pushing the 12-day cume to $310 million, but signaling softer legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's 37% sophomore decline. Mixed critical reception (44% Rotten Tomatoes) and an incoming wide release for Lee Cronin's The Mummy ($17-22 million projected debut) have traders pricing a 94.7% implied probability of under $44 million for the third frame, aligning with tracking estimates of $35-45 million. Despite solid audience scores (A- CinemaScore) and no major four-quadrant rival, an upset into $44-48 million would require stronger-than-expected holds from family turnout or new competition flops, with final tallies locking Sunday, April 19.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$38,381End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Universal and Illumination's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie dominated its second weekend with $69 million domestically—a 47% drop from its $132 million three-day opening—pushing the 12-day cume to $310 million, but signaling softer legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's 37% sophomore decline. Mixed critical reception (44% Rotten Tomatoes) and an incoming wide release for Lee Cronin's The Mummy ($17-22 million projected debut) have traders pricing a 94.7% implied probability of under $44 million for the third frame, aligning with tracking estimates of $35-45 million. Despite solid audience scores (A- CinemaScore) and no major four-quadrant rival, an upset into $44-48 million would require stronger-than-expected holds from family turnout or new competition flops, with final tallies locking Sunday, April 19.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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