Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have conducted coordinated attacks around Gao since the April 2026 offensive, seizing Kidal and claiming gains in surrounding areas while ambushing Malian convoys and downing aircraft in the Gao region during July operations. Malian forces, supported by Russia’s Africa Corps, have repelled direct assaults on the city, retained the airport, and conducted counterattacks and airstrikes to hold key positions. No full rebel capture has occurred despite intensified fighting through September, leaving traders to price in limited rebel momentum and strong government defenses over the remaining months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
16% chance
$12,976 Vol.
$12,976 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
$12,976 Vol.
$12,976 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have conducted coordinated attacks around Gao since the April 2026 offensive, seizing Kidal and claiming gains in surrounding areas while ambushing Malian convoys and downing aircraft in the Gao region during July operations. Malian forces, supported by Russia’s Africa Corps, have repelled direct assaults on the city, retained the airport, and conducted counterattacks and airstrikes to hold key positions. No full rebel capture has occurred despite intensified fighting through September, leaving traders to price in limited rebel momentum and strong government defenses over the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$12,976End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have conducted coordinated attacks around Gao since the April 2026 offensive, seizing Kidal and claiming gains in surrounding areas while ambushing Malian convoys and downing aircraft in the Gao region during July operations. Malian forces, supported by Russia’s Africa Corps, have repelled direct assaults on the city, retained the airport, and conducted counterattacks and airstrikes to hold key positions. No full rebel capture has occurred despite intensified fighting through September, leaving traders to price in limited rebel momentum and strong government defenses over the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Volume
$12,976End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have conducted coordinated attacks around Gao since the April 2026 offensive, seizing Kidal and claiming gains in surrounding areas while ambushing Malian convoys and downing aircraft in the Gao region during July operations. Malian forces, supported by Russia’s Africa Corps, have repelled direct assaults on the city, retained the airport, and conducted counterattacks and airstrikes to hold key positions. No full rebel capture has occurred despite intensified fighting through September, leaving traders to price in limited rebel momentum and strong government defenses over the remaining months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions