The closely contested Alaska Senate race features incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan facing Democrat Mary Peltola in the November general election under ranked-choice voting, following their advancement from the August top-four primary where Peltola led with 49.5% to Sullivan’s 41.4%. Recent September polls show a virtual tie or narrow Peltola edge in the low single digits, reflecting her strong fundraising, independent appeal in a state with divided voter blocs, and Sullivan’s incumbency advantages amid national midterm dynamics. Trader pricing on small victory margins aligns with this polling volatility and the potential for late shifts from campaign spending, candidate positioning on key issues like energy and fisheries, or turnout differences in rural and urban areas. Upcoming events within the resolution window could further influence final vote shares.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPeltola 0-3% 27%
Sullivan 0-3 % 18%
Peltola 3-6 % 15%
Sullivan 6-9 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Sullivan 12 %+
1%
Sullivan 9-12 %
6%
Sullivan 6-9 %
11%
Sullivan 3-6 %
8%
Sullivan 0-3 %
18%
Peltola 0-3%
20%
Peltola 3-6 %
15%
Peltola 6-9 %
9%
Peltola 9-12%
4%
Peltola 12 % ou plus
10%
Peltola 0-3% 27%
Sullivan 0-3 % 18%
Peltola 3-6 % 15%
Sullivan 6-9 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Sullivan 12 %+
$269 Vol.
1%
Sullivan 9-12 %
$472 Vol.
6%
Sullivan 6-9 %
$85 Vol.
11%
Sullivan 3-6 %
$122 Vol.
8%
Sullivan 0-3 %
$86 Vol.
18%
Peltola 0-3%
$838 Vol.
20%
Peltola 3-6 %
$223 Vol.
15%
Peltola 6-9 %
$71 Vol.
9%
Peltola 9-12%
$74 Vol.
4%
Peltola 12 % ou plus
$72 Vol.
10%
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested Alaska Senate race features incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan facing Democrat Mary Peltola in the November general election under ranked-choice voting, following their advancement from the August top-four primary where Peltola led with 49.5% to Sullivan’s 41.4%. Recent September polls show a virtual tie or narrow Peltola edge in the low single digits, reflecting her strong fundraising, independent appeal in a state with divided voter blocs, and Sullivan’s incumbency advantages amid national midterm dynamics. Trader pricing on small victory margins aligns with this polling volatility and the potential for late shifts from campaign spending, candidate positioning on key issues like energy and fisheries, or turnout differences in rural and urban areas. Upcoming events within the resolution window could further influence final vote shares.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$2,312Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested Alaska Senate race features incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan facing Democrat Mary Peltola in the November general election under ranked-choice voting, following their advancement from the August top-four primary where Peltola led with 49.5% to Sullivan’s 41.4%. Recent September polls show a virtual tie or narrow Peltola edge in the low single digits, reflecting her strong fundraising, independent appeal in a state with divided voter blocs, and Sullivan’s incumbency advantages amid national midterm dynamics. Trader pricing on small victory margins aligns with this polling volatility and the potential for late shifts from campaign spending, candidate positioning on key issues like energy and fisheries, or turnout differences in rural and urban areas. Upcoming events within the resolution window could further influence final vote shares.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,312Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested Alaska Senate race features incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan facing Democrat Mary Peltola in the November general election under ranked-choice voting, following their advancement from the August top-four primary where Peltola led with 49.5% to Sullivan’s 41.4%. Recent September polls show a virtual tie or narrow Peltola edge in the low single digits, reflecting her strong fundraising, independent appeal in a state with divided voter blocs, and Sullivan’s incumbency advantages amid national midterm dynamics. Trader pricing on small victory margins aligns with this polling volatility and the potential for late shifts from campaign spending, candidate positioning on key issues like energy and fisheries, or turnout differences in rural and urban areas. Upcoming events within the resolution window could further influence final vote shares.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection sénatoriale de l'Arkansas en 2026 avec une avance de 15 % à 20 % ?
27%
Oui
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 15%-20%?
22%
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection sénatoriale du Massachusetts de 2026 avec une avance de 25 à 30 % ?
29%
Oui
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes