Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district and faces Republican Bob Smith in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with its D+13 partisan voter index and recent voting patterns in the coastal Central Coast region. Carbajal's established fundraising edge, prior reelection margins, and the absence of competitive polling or major opposition spending have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the district's structural lean.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-24
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-24
$50,756 Vol.
$50,756 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
98%
Parti républicain
2%
$50,756 Vol.
$50,756 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$32,466 Vol.
98%
Parti républicain
$18,289 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district and faces Republican Bob Smith in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with its D+13 partisan voter index and recent voting patterns in the coastal Central Coast region. Carbajal's established fundraising edge, prior reelection margins, and the absence of competitive polling or major opposition spending have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the district's structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$50,756Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district and faces Republican Bob Smith in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with its D+13 partisan voter index and recent voting patterns in the coastal Central Coast region. Carbajal's established fundraising edge, prior reelection margins, and the absence of competitive polling or major opposition spending have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the district's structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,756Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 24th congressional district and faces Republican Bob Smith in the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with its D+13 partisan voter index and recent voting patterns in the coastal Central Coast region. Carbajal's established fundraising edge, prior reelection margins, and the absence of competitive polling or major opposition spending have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late development such as a significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Republican wave that overcomes the district's structural lean.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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