Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal faces Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election for California’s 24th congressional district after both advanced from the June 2 top-two primary. The district’s partisan composition, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Carbajal’s prior 62.7 percent general-election margin, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Carbajal’s consistent reelection record and the absence of major recent developments altering the race’s fundamentals reinforce expectations of continued Democratic control. A shift would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a significant late-cycle event capable of overcoming the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-24
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-24
$17,919 Vol.
$17,919 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
6%
$17,919 Vol.
$17,919 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$10,034 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$7,884 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal faces Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election for California’s 24th congressional district after both advanced from the June 2 top-two primary. The district’s partisan composition, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Carbajal’s prior 62.7 percent general-election margin, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Carbajal’s consistent reelection record and the absence of major recent developments altering the race’s fundamentals reinforce expectations of continued Democratic control. A shift would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a significant late-cycle event capable of overcoming the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$17,919Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal faces Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election for California’s 24th congressional district after both advanced from the June 2 top-two primary. The district’s partisan composition, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Carbajal’s prior 62.7 percent general-election margin, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Carbajal’s consistent reelection record and the absence of major recent developments altering the race’s fundamentals reinforce expectations of continued Democratic control. A shift would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a significant late-cycle event capable of overcoming the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,919Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal faces Republican Bob Smith in the November 3 general election for California’s 24th congressional district after both advanced from the June 2 top-two primary. The district’s partisan composition, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Carbajal’s prior 62.7 percent general-election margin, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Carbajal’s consistent reelection record and the absence of major recent developments altering the race’s fundamentals reinforce expectations of continued Democratic control. A shift would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a significant late-cycle event capable of overcoming the district’s structural Democratic advantage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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