Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 15, with implied probabilities nearly even for 34°C (33.5%) and 33°C (33.0%), driven by ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks in this range amid April's dry-season high pressure ridge over West Africa. Recent observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport show highs averaging 32–34°C over the past week, including a 35°C near-peak on April 10 under clear skies, but a slight cooling trend with increased cloudiness and sea breezes moderating afternoons. Key differentiators include urban heat island effects elevating airport readings, variable afternoon onshore winds, and low risk of thundery showers per NiMet updates; final resolution hinges on official observations tomorrow.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Lagos on April 15?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 15?
32°C 28%
34°C 27%
33°C 23%
35°C 14%
$25,560 Vol.
$25,560 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
7%
32°C
25%
33°C
31%
34°C
34%
35°C
14%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
32°C 28%
34°C 27%
33°C 23%
35°C 14%
$25,560 Vol.
$25,560 Vol.
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
7%
32°C
25%
33°C
31%
34°C
34%
35°C
14%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 13, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 15, with implied probabilities nearly even for 34°C (33.5%) and 33°C (33.0%), driven by ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks in this range amid April's dry-season high pressure ridge over West Africa. Recent observations at Murtala Muhammed International Airport show highs averaging 32–34°C over the past week, including a 35°C near-peak on April 10 under clear skies, but a slight cooling trend with increased cloudiness and sea breezes moderating afternoons. Key differentiators include urban heat island effects elevating airport readings, variable afternoon onshore winds, and low risk of thundery showers per NiMet updates; final resolution hinges on official observations tomorrow.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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