Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a strong 90.5% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature reaching 80°F or higher on April 15, driven by the National Weather Service forecast of a high near 84°F under partly cloudy skies with south winds at 5-15 mph. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm southerly flow across Central Texas, with recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing tight agreement on highs in the low-to-mid 80s amid low precipitation odds. Mid-April climatology supports this, with average highs near 81°F and minimal historical deviations under similar synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective development or a stalled frontal boundary increasing cloud cover and suppressing peaks to the upper 70s, though current guidance shows low confidence in such shifts ahead of evening forecast updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on April 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 15?
80°F or higher 92%
78-79°F 5.9%
76-77°F 2.1%
74-75°F <1%
$28,987 Vol.
$28,987 Vol.
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
6%
80°F or higher
92%
80°F or higher 92%
78-79°F 5.9%
76-77°F 2.1%
74-75°F <1%
$28,987 Vol.
$28,987 Vol.
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
6%
80°F or higher
92%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a strong 90.5% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature reaching 80°F or higher on April 15, driven by the National Weather Service forecast of a high near 84°F under partly cloudy skies with south winds at 5-15 mph. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm southerly flow across Central Texas, with recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing tight agreement on highs in the low-to-mid 80s amid low precipitation odds. Mid-April climatology supports this, with average highs near 81°F and minimal historical deviations under similar synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective development or a stalled frontal boundary increasing cloud cover and suppressing peaks to the upper 70s, though current guidance shows low confidence in such shifts ahead of evening forecast updates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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