Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for a 30°C high in Shenzhen on April 15, closely followed by 29°C at 26.5% and 31°C at 21%, reflecting the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of exactly 30°C under persistent southerly winds (16-24 km/h) and mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk. This setup favors warmer-than-average conditions—April climatological highs average 26-27°C per historical NOAA-aligned data—due to a stable high-pressure ridge channeling humid tropical air from the South China Sea. Recent observations show similar 30°C highs on April 14, but short-term forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover and model ensembles (e.g., slight cooling in ECMWF runs) keeps probabilities dispersed around 29-31°C. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance expected later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution via official Weather Underground ZGSZ station data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 15?
30°C 39%
29°C 28%
31°C 19%
28°C 8.2%
$33,015 Vol.
$33,015 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
8%
29°C
28%
30°C
39%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
5%
30°C 39%
29°C 28%
31°C 19%
28°C 8.2%
$33,015 Vol.
$33,015 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
8%
29°C
28%
30°C
39%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37.5% implied probability for a 30°C high in Shenzhen on April 15, closely followed by 29°C at 26.5% and 31°C at 21%, reflecting the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of exactly 30°C under persistent southerly winds (16-24 km/h) and mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk. This setup favors warmer-than-average conditions—April climatological highs average 26-27°C per historical NOAA-aligned data—due to a stable high-pressure ridge channeling humid tropical air from the South China Sea. Recent observations show similar 30°C highs on April 14, but short-term forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover and model ensembles (e.g., slight cooling in ECMWF runs) keeps probabilities dispersed around 29-31°C. Updated China Meteorological Administration guidance expected later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution via official Weather Underground ZGSZ station data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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