Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to a high of 19°C or higher in Milan on April 14, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima around 19–20°C under a high-pressure ridge building over the Mediterranean. This setup favors solar heating and minimal cloud cover, consistent with recent mild conditions across northern Italy where early April highs have averaged near 18°C at Milano Linate Airport. Historical mid-April data shows typical highs of 17–19°C on the Saffir-Simpson scale-irrelevant here, but climatological norms support the slight warm bias. However, ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential passing showers or cooler air advection, with 36% odds on exactly 18°C. Watch Italian Aeronautica Militare updates and 00Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution based on official Linate observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Milan on April 14?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 14?
19°C or higher 74%
18°C 15%
17°C 12%
14°C 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
4%
12°C
8%
13°C
11%
14°C
11%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
12%
18°C
15%
19°C or higher
74%
19°C or higher 74%
18°C 15%
17°C 12%
14°C 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
9°C or below
$59 Vol.
1%
10°C
$32 Vol.
2%
11°C
$0 Vol.
4%
12°C
$0 Vol.
8%
13°C
$0 Vol.
11%
14°C
$0 Vol.
11%
15°C
$0 Vol.
9%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
12%
18°C
$0 Vol.
15%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to a high of 19°C or higher in Milan on April 14, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima around 19–20°C under a high-pressure ridge building over the Mediterranean. This setup favors solar heating and minimal cloud cover, consistent with recent mild conditions across northern Italy where early April highs have averaged near 18°C at Milano Linate Airport. Historical mid-April data shows typical highs of 17–19°C on the Saffir-Simpson scale-irrelevant here, but climatological norms support the slight warm bias. However, ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential passing showers or cooler air advection, with 36% odds on exactly 18°C. Watch Italian Aeronautica Militare updates and 00Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution based on official Linate observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Volume
$96Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:26 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to a high of 19°C or higher in Milan on April 14, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima around 19–20°C under a high-pressure ridge building over the Mediterranean. This setup favors solar heating and minimal cloud cover, consistent with recent mild conditions across northern Italy where early April highs have averaged near 18°C at Milano Linate Airport. Historical mid-April data shows typical highs of 17–19°C on the Saffir-Simpson scale-irrelevant here, but climatological norms support the slight warm bias. However, ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential passing showers or cooler air advection, with 36% odds on exactly 18°C. Watch Italian Aeronautica Militare updates and 00Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution based on official Linate observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$96Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:26 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to a high of 19°C or higher in Milan on April 14, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima around 19–20°C under a high-pressure ridge building over the Mediterranean. This setup favors solar heating and minimal cloud cover, consistent with recent mild conditions across northern Italy where early April highs have averaged near 18°C at Milano Linate Airport. Historical mid-April data shows typical highs of 17–19°C on the Saffir-Simpson scale-irrelevant here, but climatological norms support the slight warm bias. However, ensemble spreads highlight uncertainty from potential passing showers or cooler air advection, with 36% odds on exactly 18°C. Watch Italian Aeronautica Militare updates and 00Z model runs for refinements ahead of resolution based on official Linate observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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