Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 14 at Bao'an International Airport, splitting implied probabilities evenly at 50% between 22°C or below and 32°C or higher, as divergent short-range forecasts highlight model disagreements on cloud cover and sea breeze strength. Recent observations logged 28°C on April 11 amid a warm spell recovery from early-month cold fronts, with April 12 nearing 29°C under southerly airflow. Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects 30°C with sunny periods from a weakening anticyclone aloft, but an approaching trough risks showers and low-level moisture suppressing peaks below 23°C, while clear skies and subsidence favor 32°C+. Key differentiators include diurnal sea breeze timing and moisture advection; monitor overnight ECMWF/GFS updates and China Meteorological Administration bulletins for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 14?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 14?
29°C 40%
30°C 29%
28°C 28%
27°C 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
7%
24°C
7%
25°C
2%
26°C
24%
27°C
26%
28°C
28%
29°C
40%
30°C
29%
31°C
23%
32°C or higher
10%
29°C 40%
30°C 29%
28°C 28%
27°C 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
22°C or below
$184 Vol.
2%
23°C
$79 Vol.
7%
24°C
$79 Vol.
7%
25°C
$15 Vol.
2%
26°C
$10 Vol.
24%
27°C
$10 Vol.
26%
28°C
$10 Vol.
28%
29°C
$10 Vol.
40%
30°C
$10 Vol.
29%
31°C
$196 Vol.
23%
32°C or higher
$21 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 14 at Bao'an International Airport, splitting implied probabilities evenly at 50% between 22°C or below and 32°C or higher, as divergent short-range forecasts highlight model disagreements on cloud cover and sea breeze strength. Recent observations logged 28°C on April 11 amid a warm spell recovery from early-month cold fronts, with April 12 nearing 29°C under southerly airflow. Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects 30°C with sunny periods from a weakening anticyclone aloft, but an approaching trough risks showers and low-level moisture suppressing peaks below 23°C, while clear skies and subsidence favor 32°C+. Key differentiators include diurnal sea breeze timing and moisture advection; monitor overnight ECMWF/GFS updates and China Meteorological Administration bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
Volume
$580Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:35 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 14 at Bao'an International Airport, splitting implied probabilities evenly at 50% between 22°C or below and 32°C or higher, as divergent short-range forecasts highlight model disagreements on cloud cover and sea breeze strength. Recent observations logged 28°C on April 11 amid a warm spell recovery from early-month cold fronts, with April 12 nearing 29°C under southerly airflow. Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects 30°C with sunny periods from a weakening anticyclone aloft, but an approaching trough risks showers and low-level moisture suppressing peaks below 23°C, while clear skies and subsidence favor 32°C+. Key differentiators include diurnal sea breeze timing and moisture advection; monitor overnight ECMWF/GFS updates and China Meteorological Administration bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$580Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:35 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 14 at Bao'an International Airport, splitting implied probabilities evenly at 50% between 22°C or below and 32°C or higher, as divergent short-range forecasts highlight model disagreements on cloud cover and sea breeze strength. Recent observations logged 28°C on April 11 amid a warm spell recovery from early-month cold fronts, with April 12 nearing 29°C under southerly airflow. Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects 30°C with sunny periods from a weakening anticyclone aloft, but an approaching trough risks showers and low-level moisture suppressing peaks below 23°C, while clear skies and subsidence favor 32°C+. Key differentiators include diurnal sea breeze timing and moisture advection; monitor overnight ECMWF/GFS updates and China Meteorological Administration bulletins for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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