Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in Beijing's April 14 high temperature forecast, with models split evenly at 50% implied probability for ≤18°C under persistent northerly winds from a lingering Mongolian cold air mass or ≥28°C if a subtropical ridge strengthens, pushing warm advection southward. Historical data shows April 14 averages around 21°C, with daily highs typically ranging 18–24°C amid spring frontal variability, but recent China Meteorological Administration updates indicate divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs—cooler 00Z projections versus warmer 12Z tendencies—exacerbated by jet stream waviness. Key differentiators include cloud cover suppressing daytime heating or clear skies enabling rapid warm-up; watch CMA briefings and new model outputs tomorrow for resolution shifts as the event nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Beijing on April 14?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 14?
21°C 45%
18°C or below 38%
22°C 29%
23°C 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
18°C or below
38%
19°C
13%
20°C
15%
21°C
45%
22°C
29%
23°C
25%
24°C
9%
25°C
9%
26°C
9%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
5%
21°C 45%
18°C or below 38%
22°C 29%
23°C 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
18°C or below
$30 Vol.
38%
19°C
$12 Vol.
13%
20°C
$24 Vol.
15%
21°C
$7 Vol.
45%
22°C
$20 Vol.
29%
23°C
$7 Vol.
25%
24°C
$12 Vol.
9%
25°C
$12 Vol.
9%
26°C
$36 Vol.
9%
27°C
$12 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$43 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in Beijing's April 14 high temperature forecast, with models split evenly at 50% implied probability for ≤18°C under persistent northerly winds from a lingering Mongolian cold air mass or ≥28°C if a subtropical ridge strengthens, pushing warm advection southward. Historical data shows April 14 averages around 21°C, with daily highs typically ranging 18–24°C amid spring frontal variability, but recent China Meteorological Administration updates indicate divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs—cooler 00Z projections versus warmer 12Z tendencies—exacerbated by jet stream waviness. Key differentiators include cloud cover suppressing daytime heating or clear skies enabling rapid warm-up; watch CMA briefings and new model outputs tomorrow for resolution shifts as the event nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Volume
$193Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in Beijing's April 14 high temperature forecast, with models split evenly at 50% implied probability for ≤18°C under persistent northerly winds from a lingering Mongolian cold air mass or ≥28°C if a subtropical ridge strengthens, pushing warm advection southward. Historical data shows April 14 averages around 21°C, with daily highs typically ranging 18–24°C amid spring frontal variability, but recent China Meteorological Administration updates indicate divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs—cooler 00Z projections versus warmer 12Z tendencies—exacerbated by jet stream waviness. Key differentiators include cloud cover suppressing daytime heating or clear skies enabling rapid warm-up; watch CMA briefings and new model outputs tomorrow for resolution shifts as the event nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$193Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in Beijing's April 14 high temperature forecast, with models split evenly at 50% implied probability for ≤18°C under persistent northerly winds from a lingering Mongolian cold air mass or ≥28°C if a subtropical ridge strengthens, pushing warm advection southward. Historical data shows April 14 averages around 21°C, with daily highs typically ranging 18–24°C amid spring frontal variability, but recent China Meteorological Administration updates indicate divergent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs—cooler 00Z projections versus warmer 12Z tendencies—exacerbated by jet stream waviness. Key differentiators include cloud cover suppressing daytime heating or clear skies enabling rapid warm-up; watch CMA briefings and new model outputs tomorrow for resolution shifts as the event nears.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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