Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 14, with outcomes clustered tightly around 16–23°C and 21°C leading at a modest 29% implied probability, driven by slight divergences between ECMWF (leaning cooler near 19°C) and GFS models (warmer toward 21–22°C). Mid-April climatology in Madrid typically sees highs averaging 18–20°C under continental spring conditions, but current upper-level ridging over Iberia and variable low-level moisture introduce cloud cover risks that could cap peaks at 18–19°C or allow brief surges to 22°C with clearer skies. AEMET's latest guidance aligns with this ensemble spread; watch for daily model updates and observational data through April 13, as small shifts in boundary layer stability will tip the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on April 14?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 14?
20°C 31%
21°C 29%
22°C 13%
19°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
11%
17°C
10%
18°C
11%
19°C
12%
20°C
31%
21°C
29%
22°C
13%
23°C
11%
24°C
9%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 31%
21°C 29%
22°C 13%
19°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
15°C or below
$61 Vol.
1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
11%
17°C
$0 Vol.
10%
18°C
$0 Vol.
11%
19°C
$9 Vol.
12%
20°C
$0 Vol.
31%
21°C
$15 Vol.
29%
22°C
$0 Vol.
13%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
9%
25°C or higher
$19 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 14, with outcomes clustered tightly around 16–23°C and 21°C leading at a modest 29% implied probability, driven by slight divergences between ECMWF (leaning cooler near 19°C) and GFS models (warmer toward 21–22°C). Mid-April climatology in Madrid typically sees highs averaging 18–20°C under continental spring conditions, but current upper-level ridging over Iberia and variable low-level moisture introduce cloud cover risks that could cap peaks at 18–19°C or allow brief surges to 22°C with clearer skies. AEMET's latest guidance aligns with this ensemble spread; watch for daily model updates and observational data through April 13, as small shifts in boundary layer stability will tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$105Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 14, with outcomes clustered tightly around 16–23°C and 21°C leading at a modest 29% implied probability, driven by slight divergences between ECMWF (leaning cooler near 19°C) and GFS models (warmer toward 21–22°C). Mid-April climatology in Madrid typically sees highs averaging 18–20°C under continental spring conditions, but current upper-level ridging over Iberia and variable low-level moisture introduce cloud cover risks that could cap peaks at 18–19°C or allow brief surges to 22°C with clearer skies. AEMET's latest guidance aligns with this ensemble spread; watch for daily model updates and observational data through April 13, as small shifts in boundary layer stability will tip the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$105Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 14, with outcomes clustered tightly around 16–23°C and 21°C leading at a modest 29% implied probability, driven by slight divergences between ECMWF (leaning cooler near 19°C) and GFS models (warmer toward 21–22°C). Mid-April climatology in Madrid typically sees highs averaging 18–20°C under continental spring conditions, but current upper-level ridging over Iberia and variable low-level moisture introduce cloud cover risks that could cap peaks at 18–19°C or allow brief surges to 22°C with clearer skies. AEMET's latest guidance aligns with this ensemble spread; watch for daily model updates and observational data through April 13, as small shifts in boundary layer stability will tip the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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