Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Munich's highest temperature on April 14, with implied probabilities tightly split between 9–10°C (41.5%) and 12–13°C (42.5%), driven by conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs from the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) guidance. A lingering low-pressure system over central Europe promises widespread clouds, morning rain, and showers, capping daytime heating via reduced insolation, while some model members forecast afternoon clearing in southern Bavaria that could permit mild recovery to 12–13°C amid light westerly winds. Following recent warmer readings—17°C on April 11 and likely 14°C on April 12—this frontal boundary introduces cooler air advection; new 12Z model runs and morning soundings expected overnight will clarify cloud evolution and resolution at Munich Airport station.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Munich on April 14?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 14?
12°C 36%
13°C 22%
11°C 16%
8°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
5°C or below
2%
6°C
2%
7°C
3%
8°C
6%
9°C
11%
10°C
19%
11°C
16%
12°C
36%
13°C
22%
14°C
14%
15°C or higher
2%
12°C 36%
13°C 22%
11°C 16%
8°C 6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
5°C or below
$107 Vol.
2%
6°C
$37 Vol.
2%
7°C
$38 Vol.
3%
8°C
$97 Vol.
6%
9°C
$70 Vol.
11%
10°C
$88 Vol.
19%
11°C
$22 Vol.
16%
12°C
$37 Vol.
36%
13°C
$32 Vol.
22%
14°C
$22 Vol.
14%
15°C or higher
$26 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Munich's highest temperature on April 14, with implied probabilities tightly split between 9–10°C (41.5%) and 12–13°C (42.5%), driven by conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs from the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) guidance. A lingering low-pressure system over central Europe promises widespread clouds, morning rain, and showers, capping daytime heating via reduced insolation, while some model members forecast afternoon clearing in southern Bavaria that could permit mild recovery to 12–13°C amid light westerly winds. Following recent warmer readings—17°C on April 11 and likely 14°C on April 12—this frontal boundary introduces cooler air advection; new 12Z model runs and morning soundings expected overnight will clarify cloud evolution and resolution at Munich Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$531Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Munich's highest temperature on April 14, with implied probabilities tightly split between 9–10°C (41.5%) and 12–13°C (42.5%), driven by conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs from the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) guidance. A lingering low-pressure system over central Europe promises widespread clouds, morning rain, and showers, capping daytime heating via reduced insolation, while some model members forecast afternoon clearing in southern Bavaria that could permit mild recovery to 12–13°C amid light westerly winds. Following recent warmer readings—17°C on April 11 and likely 14°C on April 12—this frontal boundary introduces cooler air advection; new 12Z model runs and morning soundings expected overnight will clarify cloud evolution and resolution at Munich Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$531Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Munich's highest temperature on April 14, with implied probabilities tightly split between 9–10°C (41.5%) and 12–13°C (42.5%), driven by conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs from the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) guidance. A lingering low-pressure system over central Europe promises widespread clouds, morning rain, and showers, capping daytime heating via reduced insolation, while some model members forecast afternoon clearing in southern Bavaria that could permit mild recovery to 12–13°C amid light westerly winds. Following recent warmer readings—17°C on April 11 and likely 14°C on April 12—this frontal boundary introduces cooler air advection; new 12Z model runs and morning soundings expected overnight will clarify cloud evolution and resolution at Munich Airport station.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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