Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 21°C or below in Tel Aviv on March 29 at 78.5% implied probability, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service's latest outlook for partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated light rainfall overnight into Sunday, capping highs around 20-21°C amid a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing cooler Mediterranean air advection. Recent observations reinforce this, including a 19°C peak on March 25 and afternoon highs near 18°C today (March 28), below the late-March climatological average of 21°C. Cloud cover will limit solar insolation and diurnal heating, though slight warm anomalies from 1-2°C above-normal sea surface temperatures introduce modest 13.5% odds for exactly 22°C. Monitor IMS hourly updates and evening model runs from ECMWF/GFS for potential refinements ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 29?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 29?
21°C or below 79%
22°C 14%
23°C 3.5%
24°C 2.1%
$14,123 Vol.
$14,123 Vol.
21°C or below
79%
22°C
14%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
21°C or below 79%
22°C 14%
23°C 3.5%
24°C 2.1%
$14,123 Vol.
$14,123 Vol.
21°C or below
79%
22°C
14%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 21°C or below in Tel Aviv on March 29 at 78.5% implied probability, driven by the Israel Meteorological Service's latest outlook for partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated light rainfall overnight into Sunday, capping highs around 20-21°C amid a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing cooler Mediterranean air advection. Recent observations reinforce this, including a 19°C peak on March 25 and afternoon highs near 18°C today (March 28), below the late-March climatological average of 21°C. Cloud cover will limit solar insolation and diurnal heating, though slight warm anomalies from 1-2°C above-normal sea surface temperatures introduce modest 13.5% odds for exactly 22°C. Monitor IMS hourly updates and evening model runs from ECMWF/GFS for potential refinements ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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