Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 10–12°C for London's highest temperature on March 28, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild spring conditions under a developing high-pressure ridge over southern Britain. A recent shift toward northerly winds in model runs has boosted odds for 10°C (25.5%) and 11°C (27.5%) over 12°C (21%), as cooler continental air tempers earlier mild Atlantic inflows. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—favoring cooler maxima if showers persist—and frontal timing, with historical March averages at Heathrow (~11°C) underscoring the narrow 1–2°C model spread amid typical late-winter uncertainty. Upcoming 12Z forecast updates could sharpen these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Londres le 28 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Londres le 28 mars ?
11°C 28%
10°C 26%
12°C 21%
9°C 14%
6°C ou moins
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
4%
9°C
14%
10°C
26%
11°C
28%
12°C
21%
13°C
7%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C ou plus
2%
11°C 28%
10°C 26%
12°C 21%
9°C 14%
6°C ou moins
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
4%
9°C
14%
10°C
26%
11°C
28%
12°C
21%
13°C
7%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C ou plus
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 10–12°C for London's highest temperature on March 28, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild spring conditions under a developing high-pressure ridge over southern Britain. A recent shift toward northerly winds in model runs has boosted odds for 10°C (25.5%) and 11°C (27.5%) over 12°C (21%), as cooler continental air tempers earlier mild Atlantic inflows. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—favoring cooler maxima if showers persist—and frontal timing, with historical March averages at Heathrow (~11°C) underscoring the narrow 1–2°C model spread amid typical late-winter uncertainty. Upcoming 12Z forecast updates could sharpen these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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