Ensemble forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Toronto high of 12°C on March 26, with 22.4% implied probability, edging out 11°C and 13°C amid tight clustering around 11-14°C. Recent model runs show mild southerly flow and partial cloud cover boosting highs above the March climatological average of 7°C, but uncertainty lingers from potential afternoon showers or northerly wind shifts that could cap temperatures at 11°C or push to 13-14°C. Historical data indicates 20-30% variability in late-March highs due to frontal passages, explaining the razor-thin odds differentiation as traders weigh ensemble spreads ahead of final observations from Pearson Airport.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Toronto le 26 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Toronto le 26 mars ?
12°C 22.4%
11°C 19%
13°C 17%
14°C 13.7%
$18,042 Vol.
$18,042 Vol.
8°C ou moins
4%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
19%
12°C
22%
13°C
17%
14°C
14%
15°C
6%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C ou plus
1%
12°C 22.4%
11°C 19%
13°C 17%
14°C 13.7%
$18,042 Vol.
$18,042 Vol.
8°C ou moins
4%
9°C
4%
10°C
5%
11°C
19%
12°C
22%
13°C
17%
14°C
14%
15°C
6%
16°C
3%
17°C
1%
18°C ou plus
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward a Toronto high of 12°C on March 26, with 22.4% implied probability, edging out 11°C and 13°C amid tight clustering around 11-14°C. Recent model runs show mild southerly flow and partial cloud cover boosting highs above the March climatological average of 7°C, but uncertainty lingers from potential afternoon showers or northerly wind shifts that could cap temperatures at 11°C or push to 13-14°C. Historical data indicates 20-30% variability in late-March highs due to frontal passages, explaining the razor-thin odds differentiation as traders weigh ensemble spreads ahead of final observations from Pearson Airport.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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