Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientific consensus that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude correlates with fault rupture length, and no known fault—or combination—could sustain the global-scale rupture exceeding Earth's circumference required for moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0, far beyond the record 9.5 Valdivia quake in 1960 Chile. No Mw 9+ events have occurred since 2011's Japan quake, with recent USGS-monitored seismicity limited to Mw 7.x maxima. While tectonic surprises remain theoretically possible, continuous global seismic networks show no precursors, cementing near-certainty absent paradigm-shifting geological data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया10.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?
10.0 या 2027 से पहले भूकंप से ऊपर?
हाँ
$555,216 वॉल्यूम
$555,216 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$555,216 वॉल्यूम
$555,216 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientific consensus that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude correlates with fault rupture length, and no known fault—or combination—could sustain the global-scale rupture exceeding Earth's circumference required for moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0, far beyond the record 9.5 Valdivia quake in 1960 Chile. No Mw 9+ events have occurred since 2011's Japan quake, with recent USGS-monitored seismicity limited to Mw 7.x maxima. While tectonic surprises remain theoretically possible, continuous global seismic networks show no precursors, cementing near-certainty absent paradigm-shifting geological data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$555,216समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientific consensus that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude correlates with fault rupture length, and no known fault—or combination—could sustain the global-scale rupture exceeding Earth's circumference required for moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0, far beyond the record 9.5 Valdivia quake in 1960 Chile. No Mw 9+ events have occurred since 2011's Japan quake, with recent USGS-monitored seismicity limited to Mw 7.x maxima. While tectonic surprises remain theoretically possible, continuous global seismic networks show no precursors, cementing near-certainty absent paradigm-shifting geological data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$555,216समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.9% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientific consensus that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude correlates with fault rupture length, and no known fault—or combination—could sustain the global-scale rupture exceeding Earth's circumference required for moment magnitude (Mw) 10.0, far beyond the record 9.5 Valdivia quake in 1960 Chile. No Mw 9+ events have occurred since 2011's Japan quake, with recent USGS-monitored seismicity limited to Mw 7.x maxima. While tectonic surprises remain theoretically possible, continuous global seismic networks show no precursors, cementing near-certainty absent paradigm-shifting geological data.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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