Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first half of April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures tracking at levels likely to rank the full month as the third-hottest April on record, behind El Niño-fueled peaks of 2024 and 2023, fueling trader consensus at 63% implied probability for that outcome. Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures, second-highest for March at 0.44°C above 1991-2020 averages per Copernicus, provide upward pressure amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA), which temper chances for surpassing prior records (1st at 5.5%, 2nd at 17%). March's fourth-warmest ranking and April seasonal forecasts projecting above-average anomalies reinforce this positioning, with full-month resolution hinging on NOAA and Copernicus bulletins in early May.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 1 अप्रैल, 2 अप्रैल, 3 अप्रैल रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म?
2026 1 अप्रैल, 2 अप्रैल, 3 अप्रैल रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म?
तीसरा सबसे गर्म 66%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म 17%
चौथा या उससे कम 16%
सबसे गर्म 3.9%
$70,545 वॉल्यूम
$70,545 वॉल्यूम
10 मई, 2026
सबसे गर्म
4%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
17%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म
66%
चौथा या उससे कम
16%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म 66%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म 17%
चौथा या उससे कम 16%
सबसे गर्म 3.9%
$70,545 वॉल्यूम
$70,545 वॉल्यूम
10 मई, 2026
सबसे गर्म
$7,352 वॉल्यूम
4%
दूसरा सबसे गर्म
$21,052 वॉल्यूम
17%
तीसरा सबसे गर्म
$14,434 वॉल्यूम
66%
चौथा या उससे कम
$27,708 वॉल्यूम
16%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first half of April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures tracking at levels likely to rank the full month as the third-hottest April on record, behind El Niño-fueled peaks of 2024 and 2023, fueling trader consensus at 63% implied probability for that outcome. Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures, second-highest for March at 0.44°C above 1991-2020 averages per Copernicus, provide upward pressure amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA), which temper chances for surpassing prior records (1st at 5.5%, 2nd at 17%). March's fourth-warmest ranking and April seasonal forecasts projecting above-average anomalies reinforce this positioning, with full-month resolution hinging on NOAA and Copernicus bulletins in early May.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$70,545समाप्ति तिथि
10 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first half of April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures tracking at levels likely to rank the full month as the third-hottest April on record, behind El Niño-fueled peaks of 2024 and 2023, fueling trader consensus at 63% implied probability for that outcome. Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures, second-highest for March at 0.44°C above 1991-2020 averages per Copernicus, provide upward pressure amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA), which temper chances for surpassing prior records (1st at 5.5%, 2nd at 17%). March's fourth-warmest ranking and April seasonal forecasts projecting above-average anomalies reinforce this positioning, with full-month resolution hinging on NOAA and Copernicus bulletins in early May.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$70,545समाप्ति तिथि
10 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for the first half of April 2026 shows global surface air temperatures tracking at levels likely to rank the full month as the third-hottest April on record, behind El Niño-fueled peaks of 2024 and 2023, fueling trader consensus at 63% implied probability for that outcome. Persistently elevated sea surface temperatures, second-highest for March at 0.44°C above 1991-2020 averages per Copernicus, provide upward pressure amid ENSO-neutral conditions (80% chance through June per NOAA), which temper chances for surpassing prior records (1st at 5.5%, 2nd at 17%). March's fourth-warmest ranking and April seasonal forecasts projecting above-average anomalies reinforce this positioning, with full-month resolution hinging on NOAA and Copernicus bulletins in early May.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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