Trader consensus on Polymarket prices low average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, with 37% implying 0-10 vessels amid ongoing US-Iran tensions and a fragile ceasefire. Recent disruptions persist despite Iran's April 9 announcement of alternative routes and warnings of sea mines in main lanes, as US naval blockade of Iranian ports deters non-sanctioned traffic; ship-tracking data shows volumes below 10% of normal over the past week, with only a handful of mostly Iranian-linked vessels passing amid insurance shortfalls and attack fears from prior strikes. Higher bins trail as no clear de-escalation signals or security guarantees have emerged, though weekend upticks to around 20 crossings hint at potential normalization if diplomatic talks advance.