Trader consensus favors very low average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, with 0-10 ships at 39% and 10-20 at 23%, reflecting the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports implemented April 13 amid stalled ceasefire talks in the ongoing Iran conflict. Ship-tracking data shows transits plummeting from pre-war norms of around 140 vessels daily to single digits recently, as U.S. Central Command reports redirecting 10 vessels with none breaking through, while non-Iranian commercial shipping avoids the chokepoint due to safety risks from prior Iranian restrictions since late February. Higher bins like 60+ at 13.5% price in slim chances of de-escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs before resolution, though escalation signals dominate.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअप्रैल के अंत में होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुजरने वाले जहाजों का औसत #?
अप्रैल के अंत में होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुजरने वाले जहाजों का औसत #?
0-10 40%
10-20 22.9%
60+ 13%
50-60 9.2%
$103,783 वॉल्यूम
$103,783 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
0-10
40%
10-20
23%
20-30
9%
30-40
9%
40-50
6%
50-60
9%
60+
13%
0-10 40%
10-20 22.9%
60+ 13%
50-60 9.2%
$103,783 वॉल्यूम
$103,783 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
0-10
$25,539 वॉल्यूम
40%
10-20
$11,116 वॉल्यूम
23%
20-30
$10,247 वॉल्यूम
9%
30-40
$8,902 वॉल्यूम
9%
40-50
$8,141 वॉल्यूम
6%
50-60
$10,687 वॉल्यूम
9%
60+
$29,152 वॉल्यूम
13%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors very low average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, with 0-10 ships at 39% and 10-20 at 23%, reflecting the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports implemented April 13 amid stalled ceasefire talks in the ongoing Iran conflict. Ship-tracking data shows transits plummeting from pre-war norms of around 140 vessels daily to single digits recently, as U.S. Central Command reports redirecting 10 vessels with none breaking through, while non-Iranian commercial shipping avoids the chokepoint due to safety risks from prior Iranian restrictions since late February. Higher bins like 60+ at 13.5% price in slim chances of de-escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs before resolution, though escalation signals dominate.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$103,783समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors very low average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, with 0-10 ships at 39% and 10-20 at 23%, reflecting the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports implemented April 13 amid stalled ceasefire talks in the ongoing Iran conflict. Ship-tracking data shows transits plummeting from pre-war norms of around 140 vessels daily to single digits recently, as U.S. Central Command reports redirecting 10 vessels with none breaking through, while non-Iranian commercial shipping avoids the chokepoint due to safety risks from prior Iranian restrictions since late February. Higher bins like 60+ at 13.5% price in slim chances of de-escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs before resolution, though escalation signals dominate.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$103,783समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors very low average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, with 0-10 ships at 39% and 10-20 at 23%, reflecting the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports implemented April 13 amid stalled ceasefire talks in the ongoing Iran conflict. Ship-tracking data shows transits plummeting from pre-war norms of around 140 vessels daily to single digits recently, as U.S. Central Command reports redirecting 10 vessels with none breaking through, while non-Iranian commercial shipping avoids the chokepoint due to safety risks from prior Iranian restrictions since late February. Higher bins like 60+ at 13.5% price in slim chances of de-escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs before resolution, though escalation signals dominate.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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