Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.9% implied probability for the Bank of Russia to decrease its 15% key rate at the April 24, 2026 meeting, driven by sustained disinflation—March CPI held steady at 5.9% year-over-year, with monthly gains slowing to 0.60%—and seven consecutive 50 basis point cuts signaling a clear easing path toward the 4% target. Stable household inflation expectations, improving business sentiment, and a steady ruble around 77 per USD reinforce this positioning amid moderating price pressures from prior peaks. Realistic challenges include a surprise inflation rebound from tariff adjustments or ruble volatility ahead of the decision.