Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment. This strong positioning stems from the Fed's March 17-18 decision to hold steady amid solid economic expansion but low job gains signaling labor market softening, despite March 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year on a war-related oil shock—viewed largely as transitory per recent minutes released early April. Policymakers raised their 2026 inflation outlook modestly, with only some openness to hikes. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected pre-meeting data like retail sales or escalating energy prices prompting a surprise 25 basis points increase, though crowded trader sentiment heavily discounts such risks ahead of resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअप्रैल में फेड का फ़ैसला?
अप्रैल में फेड का फ़ैसला?
कोई बदलाव नहीं 99.0%
25 आधार अंकों की कटौती <1%
25+ बीपीएस वृद्धि <1%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट की कटौती <1%
$94,940,097 वॉल्यूम
$94,940,097 वॉल्यूम
29 अप्रैल, 2026
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट की कटौती
<1%
25 आधार अंकों की कटौती
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
99%
25+ बीपीएस वृद्धि
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 99.0%
25 आधार अंकों की कटौती <1%
25+ बीपीएस वृद्धि <1%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट की कटौती <1%
$94,940,097 वॉल्यूम
$94,940,097 वॉल्यूम
29 अप्रैल, 2026
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट की कटौती
$34,763,568 वॉल्यूम
<1%
25 आधार अंकों की कटौती
$19,433,356 वॉल्यूम
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$19,333,565 वॉल्यूम
99%
25+ बीपीएस वृद्धि
$21,593,470 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment. This strong positioning stems from the Fed's March 17-18 decision to hold steady amid solid economic expansion but low job gains signaling labor market softening, despite March 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year on a war-related oil shock—viewed largely as transitory per recent minutes released early April. Policymakers raised their 2026 inflation outlook modestly, with only some openness to hikes. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected pre-meeting data like retail sales or escalating energy prices prompting a surprise 25 basis points increase, though crowded trader sentiment heavily discounts such risks ahead of resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$94,940,097समाप्ति तिथि
29 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment. This strong positioning stems from the Fed's March 17-18 decision to hold steady amid solid economic expansion but low job gains signaling labor market softening, despite March 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year on a war-related oil shock—viewed largely as transitory per recent minutes released early April. Policymakers raised their 2026 inflation outlook modestly, with only some openness to hikes. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected pre-meeting data like retail sales or escalating energy prices prompting a surprise 25 basis points increase, though crowded trader sentiment heavily discounts such risks ahead of resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$94,940,097समाप्ति तिथि
29 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.1% implied probability to no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment. This strong positioning stems from the Fed's March 17-18 decision to hold steady amid solid economic expansion but low job gains signaling labor market softening, despite March 2026 CPI accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year on a war-related oil shock—viewed largely as transitory per recent minutes released early April. Policymakers raised their 2026 inflation outlook modestly, with only some openness to hikes. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected pre-meeting data like retail sales or escalating energy prices prompting a surprise 25 basis points increase, though crowded trader sentiment heavily discounts such risks ahead of resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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