Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the March 18 FOMC dot plot projecting a median fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—below the current 3.50%-3.75% target range—reflecting expectations for net cuts amid a resilient labor market and disinflation trajectory. Sticky March 2026 CPI, up 0.9% monthly on surging energy prices from oil near $100/barrel, prompted FOMC minutes released April 8 to note a roughly 30% market probability of hikes through mid-year, yet trader consensus favors the Fed's neutral-to-easing stance with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Key catalysts ahead include April nonfarm payrolls, CPI release, and the May FOMC meeting, which could shift rate path pricing if inflation reaccelerates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$894,848 वॉल्यूम
$894,848 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$894,848 वॉल्यूम
$894,848 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the March 18 FOMC dot plot projecting a median fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—below the current 3.50%-3.75% target range—reflecting expectations for net cuts amid a resilient labor market and disinflation trajectory. Sticky March 2026 CPI, up 0.9% monthly on surging energy prices from oil near $100/barrel, prompted FOMC minutes released April 8 to note a roughly 30% market probability of hikes through mid-year, yet trader consensus favors the Fed's neutral-to-easing stance with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Key catalysts ahead include April nonfarm payrolls, CPI release, and the May FOMC meeting, which could shift rate path pricing if inflation reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$894,848समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the March 18 FOMC dot plot projecting a median fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—below the current 3.50%-3.75% target range—reflecting expectations for net cuts amid a resilient labor market and disinflation trajectory. Sticky March 2026 CPI, up 0.9% monthly on surging energy prices from oil near $100/barrel, prompted FOMC minutes released April 8 to note a roughly 30% market probability of hikes through mid-year, yet trader consensus favors the Fed's neutral-to-easing stance with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Key catalysts ahead include April nonfarm payrolls, CPI release, and the May FOMC meeting, which could shift rate path pricing if inflation reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$894,848समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price an 86.5% implied probability against any Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the March 18 FOMC dot plot projecting a median fed funds rate of 3.4% by year-end—below the current 3.50%-3.75% target range—reflecting expectations for net cuts amid a resilient labor market and disinflation trajectory. Sticky March 2026 CPI, up 0.9% monthly on surging energy prices from oil near $100/barrel, prompted FOMC minutes released April 8 to note a roughly 30% market probability of hikes through mid-year, yet trader consensus favors the Fed's neutral-to-easing stance with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Key catalysts ahead include April nonfarm payrolls, CPI release, and the May FOMC meeting, which could shift rate path pricing if inflation reaccelerates.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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