Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia by June 30, driven by stalled US-mediated negotiations centered on irreconcilable demands for eastern territory cessions, security guarantees, and demilitarization. Recent developments include a fragile Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9—agreed by Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy but marred by mutual violation accusations and followed by a 175-servicemen prisoner swap—alongside Ukraine's top negotiator Kyrylo Budanov stating April 10 that talks are progressing as "all understand the war needs to end" without a timeline. The Kremlin insists negotiations remain paused amid Russian battlefield gains, highlighting significant barriers to a comprehensive agreement in the tight 75-day window barring diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$94,169 वॉल्यूम
$94,169 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$94,169 वॉल्यूम
$94,169 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia by June 30, driven by stalled US-mediated negotiations centered on irreconcilable demands for eastern territory cessions, security guarantees, and demilitarization. Recent developments include a fragile Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9—agreed by Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy but marred by mutual violation accusations and followed by a 175-servicemen prisoner swap—alongside Ukraine's top negotiator Kyrylo Budanov stating April 10 that talks are progressing as "all understand the war needs to end" without a timeline. The Kremlin insists negotiations remain paused amid Russian battlefield gains, highlighting significant barriers to a comprehensive agreement in the tight 75-day window barring diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$94,169समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia by June 30, driven by stalled US-mediated negotiations centered on irreconcilable demands for eastern territory cessions, security guarantees, and demilitarization. Recent developments include a fragile Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9—agreed by Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy but marred by mutual violation accusations and followed by a 175-servicemen prisoner swap—alongside Ukraine's top negotiator Kyrylo Budanov stating April 10 that talks are progressing as "all understand the war needs to end" without a timeline. The Kremlin insists negotiations remain paused amid Russian battlefield gains, highlighting significant barriers to a comprehensive agreement in the tight 75-day window barring diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$94,169समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia by June 30, driven by stalled US-mediated negotiations centered on irreconcilable demands for eastern territory cessions, security guarantees, and demilitarization. Recent developments include a fragile Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9—agreed by Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy but marred by mutual violation accusations and followed by a 175-servicemen prisoner swap—alongside Ukraine's top negotiator Kyrylo Budanov stating April 10 that talks are progressing as "all understand the war needs to end" without a timeline. The Kremlin insists negotiations remain paused amid Russian battlefield gains, highlighting significant barriers to a comprehensive agreement in the tight 75-day window barring diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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