Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, anchored by the January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago—the first failure of the year amid impaired capital from troubled loans and tight liquidity conditions. This event, costing the FDIC an estimated $19.7 million with $261 million in assets transferred to First Independence Bank, underscores persistent sector strains: over $300 billion in unrealized securities losses, commercial real estate exposure amid rising vacancies, and squeezed net interest margins from sustained high rates. Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2026 U.S. recession odds to 30%, fueling trader consensus. Upcoming Federal Reserve stress tests in June and Q2 bank earnings on loan provisions loom as pivotal catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$12,810 वॉल्यूम
$12,810 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$12,810 वॉल्यूम
$12,810 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, anchored by the January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago—the first failure of the year amid impaired capital from troubled loans and tight liquidity conditions. This event, costing the FDIC an estimated $19.7 million with $261 million in assets transferred to First Independence Bank, underscores persistent sector strains: over $300 billion in unrealized securities losses, commercial real estate exposure amid rising vacancies, and squeezed net interest margins from sustained high rates. Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2026 U.S. recession odds to 30%, fueling trader consensus. Upcoming Federal Reserve stress tests in June and Q2 bank earnings on loan provisions loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$12,810समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, anchored by the January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago—the first failure of the year amid impaired capital from troubled loans and tight liquidity conditions. This event, costing the FDIC an estimated $19.7 million with $261 million in assets transferred to First Independence Bank, underscores persistent sector strains: over $300 billion in unrealized securities losses, commercial real estate exposure amid rising vacancies, and squeezed net interest margins from sustained high rates. Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2026 U.S. recession odds to 30%, fueling trader consensus. Upcoming Federal Reserve stress tests in June and Q2 bank earnings on loan provisions loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
वॉल्यूम
$12,810समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, anchored by the January 30 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in Chicago—the first failure of the year amid impaired capital from troubled loans and tight liquidity conditions. This event, costing the FDIC an estimated $19.7 million with $261 million in assets transferred to First Independence Bank, underscores persistent sector strains: over $300 billion in unrealized securities losses, commercial real estate exposure amid rising vacancies, and squeezed net interest margins from sustained high rates. Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2026 U.S. recession odds to 30%, fueling trader consensus. Upcoming Federal Reserve stress tests in June and Q2 bank earnings on loan provisions loom as pivotal catalysts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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