Shin Yong-han's commanding 93.5% implied probability stems from his April 4 victory in the Democratic Party of Korea's runoff primary against Noh Young-min, securing the nomination for the June 3 Chungcheongbuk-do gubernatorial election without internal strife. Recent March polls showed him leading potential People Power Party opponents like incumbent Kim Young-hwan by double-digit margins, bolstered by his pledges for local-led growth at an April 14 party event. PPP turmoil—marked by Kim's court injunction against his cutoff, a restarted multi-candidate primary including Yoon Hee-geun, and no nominee yet as of mid-April—has fragmented conservative support. While trader consensus anticipates a DPK win reflecting national local election trends favoring opposition parties, a unified PPP powerhouse nominee by late April or a Shin scandal could narrow the gap ahead of early voting on May 29-30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni per il governatore della provincia di Chungcheongbuk
Vincitore delle elezioni per il governatore della provincia di Chungcheongbuk
Shin Yong-han 94%
Cho Gil-hyeong 2.8%
Noh Yeong-min 2.0%
Song Ki-sub 1.9%
$23,108 Vol.
$23,108 Vol.
Shin Yong-han
94%
Cho Gil-hyeong
3%
Noh Yeong-min
2%
Song Ki-sub
2%
Yoon Hee-geun
2%
Lee Jong-bae
2%
Kim Young-hwan
1%
Do Jong-hwan
<1%
Shin Yong-han 94%
Cho Gil-hyeong 2.8%
Noh Yeong-min 2.0%
Song Ki-sub 1.9%
$23,108 Vol.
$23,108 Vol.
Shin Yong-han
94%
Cho Gil-hyeong
3%
Noh Yeong-min
2%
Song Ki-sub
2%
Yoon Hee-geun
2%
Lee Jong-bae
2%
Kim Young-hwan
1%
Do Jong-hwan
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
Mercato aperto: Nov 18, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Shin Yong-han's commanding 93.5% implied probability stems from his April 4 victory in the Democratic Party of Korea's runoff primary against Noh Young-min, securing the nomination for the June 3 Chungcheongbuk-do gubernatorial election without internal strife. Recent March polls showed him leading potential People Power Party opponents like incumbent Kim Young-hwan by double-digit margins, bolstered by his pledges for local-led growth at an April 14 party event. PPP turmoil—marked by Kim's court injunction against his cutoff, a restarted multi-candidate primary including Yoon Hee-geun, and no nominee yet as of mid-April—has fragmented conservative support. While trader consensus anticipates a DPK win reflecting national local election trends favoring opposition parties, a unified PPP powerhouse nominee by late April or a Shin scandal could narrow the gap ahead of early voting on May 29-30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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