Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant driver behind the 61% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. June dot plots showed nine of 19 participants favoring a higher federal funds rate by year-end, while Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and recent FOMC statements emphasized the need to restore price stability amid resilient economic activity and a stable labor market. July PCE data at 3.7% overall and 3.3% core, alongside mixed but still-elevated CPI readings, have kept trader consensus tilted toward tightening despite some cooling in three-month trends. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
62% probabilità
$8,489,274 Vol.
$8,489,274 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
62% probabilità
$8,489,274 Vol.
$8,489,274 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant driver behind the 61% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. June dot plots showed nine of 19 participants favoring a higher federal funds rate by year-end, while Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and recent FOMC statements emphasized the need to restore price stability amid resilient economic activity and a stable labor market. July PCE data at 3.7% overall and 3.3% core, alongside mixed but still-elevated CPI readings, have kept trader consensus tilted toward tightening despite some cooling in three-month trends. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,489,274Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant driver behind the 61% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. June dot plots showed nine of 19 participants favoring a higher federal funds rate by year-end, while Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and recent FOMC statements emphasized the need to restore price stability amid resilient economic activity and a stable labor market. July PCE data at 3.7% overall and 3.3% core, alongside mixed but still-elevated CPI readings, have kept trader consensus tilted toward tightening despite some cooling in three-month trends. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,489,274Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, remains the dominant driver behind the 61% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. June dot plots showed nine of 19 participants favoring a higher federal funds rate by year-end, while Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and recent FOMC statements emphasized the need to restore price stability amid resilient economic activity and a stable labor market. July PCE data at 3.7% overall and 3.3% core, alongside mixed but still-elevated CPI readings, have kept trader consensus tilted toward tightening despite some cooling in three-month trends. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti