Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 17-18 FOMC meeting's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end, signaling one 25-basis-point cut amid balanced risks. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks—prompting minutes released April 8 to note some officials' openness to hikes, yet core pressures remain subdued without labor market overheating (unemployment projected at 4.4%). Upcoming April 29 FOMC and April PCE data loom as catalysts, but sustained disinflation trajectory supports no-hike positioning unless inflation reaccelerates broadly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$891,683 Vol.
$891,683 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
$891,683 Vol.
$891,683 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 17-18 FOMC meeting's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end, signaling one 25-basis-point cut amid balanced risks. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks—prompting minutes released April 8 to note some officials' openness to hikes, yet core pressures remain subdued without labor market overheating (unemployment projected at 4.4%). Upcoming April 29 FOMC and April PCE data loom as catalysts, but sustained disinflation trajectory supports no-hike positioning unless inflation reaccelerates broadly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$891,683Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 17-18 FOMC meeting's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end, signaling one 25-basis-point cut amid balanced risks. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks—prompting minutes released April 8 to note some officials' openness to hikes, yet core pressures remain subdued without labor market overheating (unemployment projected at 4.4%). Upcoming April 29 FOMC and April PCE data loom as catalysts, but sustained disinflation trajectory supports no-hike positioning unless inflation reaccelerates broadly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$891,683Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 17-18 FOMC meeting's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end, signaling one 25-basis-point cut amid balanced risks. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy surge from geopolitical oil shocks—prompting minutes released April 8 to note some officials' openness to hikes, yet core pressures remain subdued without labor market overheating (unemployment projected at 4.4%). Upcoming April 29 FOMC and April PCE data loom as catalysts, but sustained disinflation trajectory supports no-hike positioning unless inflation reaccelerates broadly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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