**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 6 heavily favors 78–79°F (49.5% implied probability) and 76–77°F (38.0%), reflecting model consensus around a moderate coastal high near 79°F.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and regional analyses, including UCLA’s August 3 synopsis, shows mostly sunny conditions with scattered high clouds and a forecast high/low of 79/67°F at representative stations such as LAX. This aligns with the persistent marine layer and onshore flow typical for coastal Southern California in early August, which caps daytime warming by advecting cooler Pacific air and fostering low stratus or fog that moderates peak temperatures. Broader August climatology places average LAX highs near 80–85°F, but current short-range model runs and observational trends point to slightly below-normal readings due to stable atmospheric conditions and limited offshore flow. No significant heat-wave signals or ridge strengthening appear in the immediate forecast window, keeping probabilities for 80°F+ outcomes low (under 7% combined). The market’s tight clustering around the 76–79°F range captures the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble guidance ahead of tomorrow’s resolution, with any late model shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction the primary variables that could nudge the final reading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Los Angeles il 6 agosto?
78-79°F 50%
76-77°F 38%
74-75°F 6%
80-81°F 5%
$15,318 Vol.
$15,318 Vol.
69°F o inferiore
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
38%
78-79°F
50%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88°F o superiore
<1%
78-79°F 50%
76-77°F 38%
74-75°F 6%
80-81°F 5%
$15,318 Vol.
$15,318 Vol.
69°F o inferiore
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
38%
78-79°F
50%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88°F o superiore
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 6 heavily favors 78–79°F (49.5% implied probability) and 76–77°F (38.0%), reflecting model consensus around a moderate coastal high near 79°F.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and regional analyses, including UCLA’s August 3 synopsis, shows mostly sunny conditions with scattered high clouds and a forecast high/low of 79/67°F at representative stations such as LAX. This aligns with the persistent marine layer and onshore flow typical for coastal Southern California in early August, which caps daytime warming by advecting cooler Pacific air and fostering low stratus or fog that moderates peak temperatures. Broader August climatology places average LAX highs near 80–85°F, but current short-range model runs and observational trends point to slightly below-normal readings due to stable atmospheric conditions and limited offshore flow. No significant heat-wave signals or ridge strengthening appear in the immediate forecast window, keeping probabilities for 80°F+ outcomes low (under 7% combined). The market’s tight clustering around the 76–79°F range captures the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble guidance ahead of tomorrow’s resolution, with any late model shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction the primary variables that could nudge the final reading.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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