In Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election to the National Assembly, partial counts at 95.9% show Fidesz-KDNP at 37.8% of the list vote, driving trader consensus toward 36-40% with 97.7% implied probability. Record turnout of 77.8%—the highest ever—delivered a landslide for challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party at 53.7%, leading incumbent Viktor Orbán to concede after 16 years in power. Pre-election opinion polls varied widely, but Median's projection of Fidesz near 38% proved most accurate amid a late Tisza surge. With tallies nearly complete, this dominant positioning faces minimal risk; only major recounts, vote disputes, or procedural reversals could alter it, scenarios deemed improbable post-concession.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato36-40% 97.7%
40-44% 2.3%
Meno del 36% <1%
44-48% <1%
$144,319 Vol.
$144,319 Vol.
12 apr 2026
Meno del 36%
<1%
36-40%
98%
40-44%
2%
44-48%
<1%
Oltre il 48%
<1%
36-40% 97.7%
40-44% 2.3%
Meno del 36% <1%
44-48% <1%
$144,319 Vol.
$144,319 Vol.
12 apr 2026
Meno del 36%
$37,830 Vol.
<1%
36-40%
$40,661 Vol.
98%
40-44%
$36,955 Vol.
2%
44-48%
$16,146 Vol.
<1%
Oltre il 48%
$12,727 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.In Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election to the National Assembly, partial counts at 95.9% show Fidesz-KDNP at 37.8% of the list vote, driving trader consensus toward 36-40% with 97.7% implied probability. Record turnout of 77.8%—the highest ever—delivered a landslide for challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party at 53.7%, leading incumbent Viktor Orbán to concede after 16 years in power. Pre-election opinion polls varied widely, but Median's projection of Fidesz near 38% proved most accurate amid a late Tisza surge. With tallies nearly complete, this dominant positioning faces minimal risk; only major recounts, vote disputes, or procedural reversals could alter it, scenarios deemed improbable post-concession.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Mercato aperto: Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Volume
$144,319Data di fine
12 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.In Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election to the National Assembly, partial counts at 95.9% show Fidesz-KDNP at 37.8% of the list vote, driving trader consensus toward 36-40% with 97.7% implied probability. Record turnout of 77.8%—the highest ever—delivered a landslide for challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party at 53.7%, leading incumbent Viktor Orbán to concede after 16 years in power. Pre-election opinion polls varied widely, but Median's projection of Fidesz near 38% proved most accurate amid a late Tisza surge. With tallies nearly complete, this dominant positioning faces minimal risk; only major recounts, vote disputes, or procedural reversals could alter it, scenarios deemed improbable post-concession.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Volume
$144,319Data di fine
12 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election to the National Assembly, partial counts at 95.9% show Fidesz-KDNP at 37.8% of the list vote, driving trader consensus toward 36-40% with 97.7% implied probability. Record turnout of 77.8%—the highest ever—delivered a landslide for challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party at 53.7%, leading incumbent Viktor Orbán to concede after 16 years in power. Pre-election opinion polls varied widely, but Median's projection of Fidesz near 38% proved most accurate amid a late Tisza surge. With tallies nearly complete, this dominant positioning faces minimal risk; only major recounts, vote disputes, or procedural reversals could alter it, scenarios deemed improbable post-concession.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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