Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Fidesz-KDNP securing 36-40% of the popular vote at 97.9% implied probability, reflecting partial results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election showing the ruling alliance at 37.8% of the list vote with 95.9% counted. Record turnout above 77%—the highest in post-communist history—mobilized anti-incumbent voters amid economic stagnation, corruption allegations, and Péter Magyar's rapid rise via the center-right Tisza Party, which captured around 53-54% and a projected parliamentary majority. Pre-election polls from early April consistently pegged Fidesz in the high 30s-low 40s, eroding its prior dominance. Minimal upside risk remains from rural strongholds or recounts, but official certification is unlikely to shift the bin substantially.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato36-40% 97.8%
40-44% 2.3%
Meno del 36% <1%
44-48% <1%
$142,774 Vol.
$142,774 Vol.
12 apr 2026
Meno del 36%
<1%
36-40%
98%
40-44%
2%
44-48%
<1%
Oltre il 48%
<1%
36-40% 97.8%
40-44% 2.3%
Meno del 36% <1%
44-48% <1%
$142,774 Vol.
$142,774 Vol.
12 apr 2026
Meno del 36%
$36,337 Vol.
<1%
36-40%
$40,609 Vol.
98%
40-44%
$36,955 Vol.
2%
44-48%
$16,146 Vol.
<1%
Oltre il 48%
$12,727 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Fidesz-KDNP securing 36-40% of the popular vote at 97.9% implied probability, reflecting partial results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election showing the ruling alliance at 37.8% of the list vote with 95.9% counted. Record turnout above 77%—the highest in post-communist history—mobilized anti-incumbent voters amid economic stagnation, corruption allegations, and Péter Magyar's rapid rise via the center-right Tisza Party, which captured around 53-54% and a projected parliamentary majority. Pre-election polls from early April consistently pegged Fidesz in the high 30s-low 40s, eroding its prior dominance. Minimal upside risk remains from rural strongholds or recounts, but official certification is unlikely to shift the bin substantially.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Mercato aperto: Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Volume
$142,774Data di fine
12 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Fidesz-KDNP securing 36-40% of the popular vote at 97.9% implied probability, reflecting partial results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election showing the ruling alliance at 37.8% of the list vote with 95.9% counted. Record turnout above 77%—the highest in post-communist history—mobilized anti-incumbent voters amid economic stagnation, corruption allegations, and Péter Magyar's rapid rise via the center-right Tisza Party, which captured around 53-54% and a projected parliamentary majority. Pre-election polls from early April consistently pegged Fidesz in the high 30s-low 40s, eroding its prior dominance. Minimal upside risk remains from rural strongholds or recounts, but official certification is unlikely to shift the bin substantially.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If the percentage of all valid national party list votes won by Fidesz-KDNP falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the market will resolve according to the percentage of valid national party list votes won by Fidesz.
Volume
$142,774Data di fine
12 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Fidesz-KDNP securing 36-40% of the popular vote at 97.9% implied probability, reflecting partial results from Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election showing the ruling alliance at 37.8% of the list vote with 95.9% counted. Record turnout above 77%—the highest in post-communist history—mobilized anti-incumbent voters amid economic stagnation, corruption allegations, and Péter Magyar's rapid rise via the center-right Tisza Party, which captured around 53-54% and a projected parliamentary majority. Pre-election polls from early April consistently pegged Fidesz in the high 30s-low 40s, eroding its prior dominance. Minimal upside risk remains from rural strongholds or recounts, but official certification is unlikely to shift the bin substantially.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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