Recent US-Israeli airstrikes during the February-April 2026 conflict targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including facilities at Isfahan and uranium enrichment sites, significantly degrading capabilities without triggering radiation leaks, as confirmed by IAEA monitoring on March 1. A temporary ceasefire announced April 7 has held, amid ongoing 2025-2026 US-Iran negotiations and Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons development. IAEA's February 27 report noted 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled underground but no verified weaponization or test preparations, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" test before 2027. Barriers include sanctions, inspections demands, and military setbacks, though regime survival pressures or covert advances could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$169,103 Vol.
$169,103 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$169,103 Vol.
$169,103 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes during the February-April 2026 conflict targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including facilities at Isfahan and uranium enrichment sites, significantly degrading capabilities without triggering radiation leaks, as confirmed by IAEA monitoring on March 1. A temporary ceasefire announced April 7 has held, amid ongoing 2025-2026 US-Iran negotiations and Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons development. IAEA's February 27 report noted 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled underground but no verified weaponization or test preparations, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" test before 2027. Barriers include sanctions, inspections demands, and military setbacks, though regime survival pressures or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$169,103Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Israeli airstrikes during the February-April 2026 conflict targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including facilities at Isfahan and uranium enrichment sites, significantly degrading capabilities without triggering radiation leaks, as confirmed by IAEA monitoring on March 1. A temporary ceasefire announced April 7 has held, amid ongoing 2025-2026 US-Iran negotiations and Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons development. IAEA's February 27 report noted 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled underground but no verified weaponization or test preparations, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" test before 2027. Barriers include sanctions, inspections demands, and military setbacks, though regime survival pressures or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$169,103Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US-Israeli airstrikes during the February-April 2026 conflict targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including facilities at Isfahan and uranium enrichment sites, significantly degrading capabilities without triggering radiation leaks, as confirmed by IAEA monitoring on March 1. A temporary ceasefire announced April 7 has held, amid ongoing 2025-2026 US-Iran negotiations and Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons development. IAEA's February 27 report noted 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled underground but no verified weaponization or test preparations, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" test before 2027. Barriers include sanctions, inspections demands, and military setbacks, though regime survival pressures or covert advances could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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