A fragile two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8—has prevented direct Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, but tensions persist with a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz launched April 13 to enforce nuclear material removal and safe transit. Israel has intensified operations against Hezbollah, striking over 150 targets in Lebanon on April 13-15, killing hundreds of fighters, while Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israeli communities like Nahariya and Kiryat Shmona. Israeli officials signal readiness to resume attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and missile arrays if violations occur, as Israel-Lebanon talks begin amid ceasefire expiration around April 22.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAzione militare israeliana contro l'Iran da parte di...?
Azione militare israeliana contro l'Iran da parte di...?
$1,664,794 Vol.
21 apr 2026
14 aprile
<1%
21 aprile
9%
$1,664,794 Vol.
14 aprile
$1,171,803 Vol.
<1%
21 aprile
$493,526 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8—has prevented direct Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, but tensions persist with a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz launched April 13 to enforce nuclear material removal and safe transit. Israel has intensified operations against Hezbollah, striking over 150 targets in Lebanon on April 13-15, killing hundreds of fighters, while Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israeli communities like Nahariya and Kiryat Shmona. Israeli officials signal readiness to resume attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and missile arrays if violations occur, as Israel-Lebanon talks begin amid ceasefire expiration around April 22.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercato aperto: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$1,664,794Data di fine
21 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8—has prevented direct Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, but tensions persist with a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz launched April 13 to enforce nuclear material removal and safe transit. Israel has intensified operations against Hezbollah, striking over 150 targets in Lebanon on April 13-15, killing hundreds of fighters, while Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israeli communities like Nahariya and Kiryat Shmona. Israeli officials signal readiness to resume attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and missile arrays if violations occur, as Israel-Lebanon talks begin amid ceasefire expiration around April 22.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,664,794Data di fine
21 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8—has prevented direct Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, but tensions persist with a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz launched April 13 to enforce nuclear material removal and safe transit. Israel has intensified operations against Hezbollah, striking over 150 targets in Lebanon on April 13-15, killing hundreds of fighters, while Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israeli communities like Nahariya and Kiryat Shmona. Israeli officials signal readiness to resume attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and missile arrays if violations occur, as Israel-Lebanon talks begin amid ceasefire expiration around April 22.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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