**Persistent easterly flow and high moisture levels are keeping overnight lows elevated in Miami, with official forecasts from the National Weather Service and models converging on minimum temperatures of 80–82°F for August 30.** Typical late-August climatology features average lows near 77–78°F, but the current pattern—characterized by dew points in the upper 70s, limited radiational cooling under humid conditions, and scattered showers or thunderstorms—suppresses nighttime drops. Afternoon and evening convection, driven by sea-breeze convergence and weak upper-level support, further limits clear-sky cooling. Market-implied odds reflect this: the 80–81°F bin leads at 32.5% because most guidance (including NWS point forecasts and ensemble runs) centers there, while the 78–79°F outcome at 24.5% captures residual uncertainty around heavier overnight cloud cover or localized outflow boundaries that could shave a degree or two. Higher bins (82°F+) receive lower probability as models show little warming trend, and lower bins remain discounted absent a stronger frontal passage. Traders are closely watching the next NHC/NOAA model runs and local observations through the weekend, as small shifts in precipitable water or wind speed could tip the exact minimum between the two leading ranges.