US and Israeli offensive military actions against Iran have paused since early April following a US-brokered ceasefire, with no airstrikes reported on Iranian soil after April 9 amid a 48-hour confirmation period for de-escalation. The conflict, initiated by joint US-Israel strikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership, saw Iranian missile barrages and proxy attacks on Gulf states like the UAE, prompting a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that persists despite halted offensives. President Trump described the war as "close to over" as diplomatic talks advance, including Pakistan's army chief visit to Tehran; traders eye ceasefire expiration around April 20 for potential resumption risks or formal peace negotiations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'azione militare contro l'Iran finisce con...?
L'azione militare contro l'Iran finisce con...?
$29,894,321 Vol.
30 apr 2026
17 aprile
100%
$29,894,321 Vol.
17 aprile
$26,874,369 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli offensive military actions against Iran have paused since early April following a US-brokered ceasefire, with no airstrikes reported on Iranian soil after April 9 amid a 48-hour confirmation period for de-escalation. The conflict, initiated by joint US-Israel strikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership, saw Iranian missile barrages and proxy attacks on Gulf states like the UAE, prompting a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that persists despite halted offensives. President Trump described the war as "close to over" as diplomatic talks advance, including Pakistan's army chief visit to Tehran; traders eye ceasefire expiration around April 20 for potential resumption risks or formal peace negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$29,894,321Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Revisione finale
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli offensive military actions against Iran have paused since early April following a US-brokered ceasefire, with no airstrikes reported on Iranian soil after April 9 amid a 48-hour confirmation period for de-escalation. The conflict, initiated by joint US-Israel strikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership, saw Iranian missile barrages and proxy attacks on Gulf states like the UAE, prompting a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that persists despite halted offensives. President Trump described the war as "close to over" as diplomatic talks advance, including Pakistan's army chief visit to Tehran; traders eye ceasefire expiration around April 20 for potential resumption risks or formal peace negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$29,894,321Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Revisione finale
US and Israeli offensive military actions against Iran have paused since early April following a US-brokered ceasefire, with no airstrikes reported on Iranian soil after April 9 amid a 48-hour confirmation period for de-escalation. The conflict, initiated by joint US-Israel strikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership, saw Iranian missile barrages and proxy attacks on Gulf states like the UAE, prompting a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that persists despite halted offensives. President Trump described the war as "close to over" as diplomatic talks advance, including Pakistan's army chief visit to Tehran; traders eye ceasefire expiration around April 20 for potential resumption risks or formal peace negotiations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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