Recent polls, including Sova Harris (April 2-6) and CAR (April 3-14), place GERB-SDS at 19% vote share in Bulgaria's proportional representation system with a 4% threshold, projecting 53-61 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly amid high fragmentation where Progressive Bulgaria leads at 32% but eight parties vie for entry, compressing allocations for all. Trader consensus favors 55-59 seats (47.5%) and 50-54 (31.5%) due to this volatility and historical patterns in snap elections, stable since GERB-SDS returned its mandate in January 2026 after the Zhelyazkov government's collapse over budget disputes. With the April 19 vote days away, low turnout from voter fatigue risks further tightening outcomes, limiting higher brackets.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato55-59 47%
50-54 33%
65-69 9%
<50 7.2%
$33,974 Vol.
$33,974 Vol.
19 apr 2026
<50
7%
50-54
33%
55-59
47%
60-64
4%
65-69
9%
70+
7%
55-59 47%
50-54 33%
65-69 9%
<50 7.2%
$33,974 Vol.
$33,974 Vol.
19 apr 2026
<50
$1,863 Vol.
7%
50-54
$343 Vol.
33%
55-59
$7,674 Vol.
47%
60-64
$20,092 Vol.
4%
65-69
$2,826 Vol.
9%
70+
$1,176 Vol.
7%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls, including Sova Harris (April 2-6) and CAR (April 3-14), place GERB-SDS at 19% vote share in Bulgaria's proportional representation system with a 4% threshold, projecting 53-61 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly amid high fragmentation where Progressive Bulgaria leads at 32% but eight parties vie for entry, compressing allocations for all. Trader consensus favors 55-59 seats (47.5%) and 50-54 (31.5%) due to this volatility and historical patterns in snap elections, stable since GERB-SDS returned its mandate in January 2026 after the Zhelyazkov government's collapse over budget disputes. With the April 19 vote days away, low turnout from voter fatigue risks further tightening outcomes, limiting higher brackets.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 12:31 PM ET
Volume
$33,974Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls, including Sova Harris (April 2-6) and CAR (April 3-14), place GERB-SDS at 19% vote share in Bulgaria's proportional representation system with a 4% threshold, projecting 53-61 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly amid high fragmentation where Progressive Bulgaria leads at 32% but eight parties vie for entry, compressing allocations for all. Trader consensus favors 55-59 seats (47.5%) and 50-54 (31.5%) due to this volatility and historical patterns in snap elections, stable since GERB-SDS returned its mandate in January 2026 after the Zhelyazkov government's collapse over budget disputes. With the April 19 vote days away, low turnout from voter fatigue risks further tightening outcomes, limiting higher brackets.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by GERB-SDS in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$33,974Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including Sova Harris (April 2-6) and CAR (April 3-14), place GERB-SDS at 19% vote share in Bulgaria's proportional representation system with a 4% threshold, projecting 53-61 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly amid high fragmentation where Progressive Bulgaria leads at 32% but eight parties vie for entry, compressing allocations for all. Trader consensus favors 55-59 seats (47.5%) and 50-54 (31.5%) due to this volatility and historical patterns in snap elections, stable since GERB-SDS returned its mandate in January 2026 after the Zhelyazkov government's collapse over budget disputes. With the April 19 vote days away, low turnout from voter fatigue risks further tightening outcomes, limiting higher brackets.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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