United Russia's commanding 96.8% implied probability in the State Duma election market reflects its entrenched dominance as the ruling party aligned with President Putin, bolstered by institutional advantages including candidate vetting by the Kremlin and control over electoral processes in the mixed proportional representation and single-mandate system. Recent opinion polls from VCIOM and Levada Center continue to show United Russia leading at 40-50% support, far ahead of systemic opposition like the Communist Party (CPRF) or LDPR, amid suppressed independent challengers and the first national vote since the Ukraine war began. Preparations launched in January 2026 emphasize retaining the constitutional majority (over two-thirds of 450 seats). Realistic challenges would require unprecedented developments such as mass protests, economic crisis, or elite fractures, though tight controls render these improbable ahead of the September 18–20 voting window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRussia Unita (ER) 95.5%
Piattaforma Civica (GP) <1%
Nuovi Persone (NL) <1%
Partito Comunista della Federazione Russa (KPRF) <1%
$925,617 Vol.
$925,617 Vol.
30 set 2026
Russia Unita (ER)
96%
Piattaforma Civica (GP)
1%
Nuovi Persone (NL)
1%
Partito Comunista della Federazione Russa (KPRF)
1%
Partito Liberal Democratico di Russia (LDPR)
1%
Russia Giusta – Per la Verità (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Russia Unita (ER) 95.5%
Piattaforma Civica (GP) <1%
Nuovi Persone (NL) <1%
Partito Comunista della Federazione Russa (KPRF) <1%
$925,617 Vol.
$925,617 Vol.
30 set 2026
Russia Unita (ER)
$473,290 Vol.
96%
Piattaforma Civica (GP)
$80,162 Vol.
1%
Nuovi Persone (NL)
$53,766 Vol.
1%
Partito Comunista della Federazione Russa (KPRF)
$77,518 Vol.
1%
Partito Liberal Democratico di Russia (LDPR)
$31,711 Vol.
1%
Russia Giusta – Per la Verità (SRZP)
$133,959 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$75,210 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 96.8% implied probability in the State Duma election market reflects its entrenched dominance as the ruling party aligned with President Putin, bolstered by institutional advantages including candidate vetting by the Kremlin and control over electoral processes in the mixed proportional representation and single-mandate system. Recent opinion polls from VCIOM and Levada Center continue to show United Russia leading at 40-50% support, far ahead of systemic opposition like the Communist Party (CPRF) or LDPR, amid suppressed independent challengers and the first national vote since the Ukraine war began. Preparations launched in January 2026 emphasize retaining the constitutional majority (over two-thirds of 450 seats). Realistic challenges would require unprecedented developments such as mass protests, economic crisis, or elite fractures, though tight controls render these improbable ahead of the September 18–20 voting window.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Mercato aperto: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$925,617Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 96.8% implied probability in the State Duma election market reflects its entrenched dominance as the ruling party aligned with President Putin, bolstered by institutional advantages including candidate vetting by the Kremlin and control over electoral processes in the mixed proportional representation and single-mandate system. Recent opinion polls from VCIOM and Levada Center continue to show United Russia leading at 40-50% support, far ahead of systemic opposition like the Communist Party (CPRF) or LDPR, amid suppressed independent challengers and the first national vote since the Ukraine war began. Preparations launched in January 2026 emphasize retaining the constitutional majority (over two-thirds of 450 seats). Realistic challenges would require unprecedented developments such as mass protests, economic crisis, or elite fractures, though tight controls render these improbable ahead of the September 18–20 voting window.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$925,617Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's commanding 96.8% implied probability in the State Duma election market reflects its entrenched dominance as the ruling party aligned with President Putin, bolstered by institutional advantages including candidate vetting by the Kremlin and control over electoral processes in the mixed proportional representation and single-mandate system. Recent opinion polls from VCIOM and Levada Center continue to show United Russia leading at 40-50% support, far ahead of systemic opposition like the Communist Party (CPRF) or LDPR, amid suppressed independent challengers and the first national vote since the Ukraine war began. Preparations launched in January 2026 emphasize retaining the constitutional majority (over two-thirds of 450 seats). Realistic challenges would require unprecedented developments such as mass protests, economic crisis, or elite fractures, though tight controls render these improbable ahead of the September 18–20 voting window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti