Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election on April 23, driven by multiple pre-poll surveys from early April projecting 180-plus seats and 44-45% vote share, bolstered by welfare schemes and alliances with INC, VCK, and DMDK. AIADMK-led NDA trails at 12.3%, hampered by internal fractures and weaker rural consolidation post-2021, while actor Vijay's independent TVK at 12.8% emerges as a youth-backed third force in urban pockets, potentially splitting anti-incumbent votes without securing a majority path. Final manifestos and seat-sharing pacts finalized last week underscore DMK's organizational edge, though high turnout and last-minute shifts could alter outcomes before May 4 counting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Tamil Nadu
Vincitore delle elezioni dell'Assemblea legislativa del Tamil Nadu
DMK 69%
ADMK 12.1%
TVK 7.2%
AITC <1%
$353,694 Vol.
$353,694 Vol.
23 apr 2026
DMK
69%
ADMK
12%
TVK
7%
AITC
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
DMDK
<1%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
INC
<1%
NPEP
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
DMK 69%
ADMK 12.1%
TVK 7.2%
AITC <1%
$353,694 Vol.
$353,694 Vol.
23 apr 2026
DMK
$52,319 Vol.
69%
ADMK
$46,434 Vol.
12%
TVK
$74,196 Vol.
7%
AITC
$19,827 Vol.
<1%
CPI(M)
$38,302 Vol.
<1%
DMDK
$12,329 Vol.
<1%
BSP
$12,144 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$13,064 Vol.
<1%
INC
$34,415 Vol.
<1%
NPEP
$12,372 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$21,158 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$17,147 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election on April 23, driven by multiple pre-poll surveys from early April projecting 180-plus seats and 44-45% vote share, bolstered by welfare schemes and alliances with INC, VCK, and DMDK. AIADMK-led NDA trails at 12.3%, hampered by internal fractures and weaker rural consolidation post-2021, while actor Vijay's independent TVK at 12.8% emerges as a youth-backed third force in urban pockets, potentially splitting anti-incumbent votes without securing a majority path. Final manifestos and seat-sharing pacts finalized last week underscore DMK's organizational edge, though high turnout and last-minute shifts could alter outcomes before May 4 counting.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
Volume
$353,694Data di fine
23 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election on April 23, driven by multiple pre-poll surveys from early April projecting 180-plus seats and 44-45% vote share, bolstered by welfare schemes and alliances with INC, VCK, and DMDK. AIADMK-led NDA trails at 12.3%, hampered by internal fractures and weaker rural consolidation post-2021, while actor Vijay's independent TVK at 12.8% emerges as a youth-backed third force in urban pockets, potentially splitting anti-incumbent votes without securing a majority path. Final manifestos and seat-sharing pacts finalized last week underscore DMK's organizational edge, though high turnout and last-minute shifts could alter outcomes before May 4 counting.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$353,694Data di fine
23 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance holds a commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election on April 23, driven by multiple pre-poll surveys from early April projecting 180-plus seats and 44-45% vote share, bolstered by welfare schemes and alliances with INC, VCK, and DMDK. AIADMK-led NDA trails at 12.3%, hampered by internal fractures and weaker rural consolidation post-2021, while actor Vijay's independent TVK at 12.8% emerges as a youth-backed third force in urban pockets, potentially splitting anti-incumbent votes without securing a majority path. Final manifestos and seat-sharing pacts finalized last week underscore DMK's organizational edge, though high turnout and last-minute shifts could alter outcomes before May 4 counting.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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