Trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for a U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico, driven by effective bilateral cooperation yielding tangible results without boots on the ground. Mexican forces, aided by a new U.S. military-led intelligence task force, killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho in a February 22 raid, while over 90 cartel figures have been extradited to the U.S. and homicide rates dropped 14-32%. President Trump's March 7 Latin American coalition announcement and January signals of potential land strikes have escalated rhetoric, but joint training by U.S. Green Berets and SEALs prioritizes advisory roles. Ongoing Operation Southern Spear maritime strikes in the Pacific underscore de-escalation signals, though fentanyl persistence or pre-World Cup violence spikes could shift dynamics before June resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$1,447,178 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno
17%
$1,447,178 Vol.
30 giugno
$89,209 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for a U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico, driven by effective bilateral cooperation yielding tangible results without boots on the ground. Mexican forces, aided by a new U.S. military-led intelligence task force, killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho in a February 22 raid, while over 90 cartel figures have been extradited to the U.S. and homicide rates dropped 14-32%. President Trump's March 7 Latin American coalition announcement and January signals of potential land strikes have escalated rhetoric, but joint training by U.S. Green Berets and SEALs prioritizes advisory roles. Ongoing Operation Southern Spear maritime strikes in the Pacific underscore de-escalation signals, though fentanyl persistence or pre-World Cup violence spikes could shift dynamics before June resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 12, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,447,178Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 12, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for a U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico, driven by effective bilateral cooperation yielding tangible results without boots on the ground. Mexican forces, aided by a new U.S. military-led intelligence task force, killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho in a February 22 raid, while over 90 cartel figures have been extradited to the U.S. and homicide rates dropped 14-32%. President Trump's March 7 Latin American coalition announcement and January signals of potential land strikes have escalated rhetoric, but joint training by U.S. Green Berets and SEALs prioritizes advisory roles. Ongoing Operation Southern Spear maritime strikes in the Pacific underscore de-escalation signals, though fentanyl persistence or pre-World Cup violence spikes could shift dynamics before June resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,447,178Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 12, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment reflects low implied probabilities for a U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico, driven by effective bilateral cooperation yielding tangible results without boots on the ground. Mexican forces, aided by a new U.S. military-led intelligence task force, killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho in a February 22 raid, while over 90 cartel figures have been extradited to the U.S. and homicide rates dropped 14-32%. President Trump's March 7 Latin American coalition announcement and January signals of potential land strikes have escalated rhetoric, but joint training by U.S. Green Berets and SEALs prioritizes advisory roles. Ongoing Operation Southern Spear maritime strikes in the Pacific underscore de-escalation signals, though fentanyl persistence or pre-World Cup violence spikes could shift dynamics before June resolution windows.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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