First-round US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 11 concluded without a nuclear deal after 21 hours, but Pakistani mediation has spurred momentum for a second round potentially within days, amid a fragile ceasefire expiring around April 21 and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz blocking Iranian oil exports. The Trump administration's "final offer" demands a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension, facility dismantlement, and regional de-escalation, while Iran proposes a five-year pause tied to full sanctions relief and asset unfreezing. White House optimism and technical experts' direct talks reflect trader consensus implying 59.5% odds of agreement by June 30, balancing diplomatic progress against persistent gaps on enrichment limits and verification, with economic coercion accelerating timeline pressures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo nucleare USA-Iran entro il 30 giugno?
Accordo nucleare USA-Iran entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$1,162,911 Vol.
$1,162,911 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,162,911 Vol.
$1,162,911 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.First-round US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 11 concluded without a nuclear deal after 21 hours, but Pakistani mediation has spurred momentum for a second round potentially within days, amid a fragile ceasefire expiring around April 21 and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz blocking Iranian oil exports. The Trump administration's "final offer" demands a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension, facility dismantlement, and regional de-escalation, while Iran proposes a five-year pause tied to full sanctions relief and asset unfreezing. White House optimism and technical experts' direct talks reflect trader consensus implying 59.5% odds of agreement by June 30, balancing diplomatic progress against persistent gaps on enrichment limits and verification, with economic coercion accelerating timeline pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,162,911Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.First-round US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 11 concluded without a nuclear deal after 21 hours, but Pakistani mediation has spurred momentum for a second round potentially within days, amid a fragile ceasefire expiring around April 21 and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz blocking Iranian oil exports. The Trump administration's "final offer" demands a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension, facility dismantlement, and regional de-escalation, while Iran proposes a five-year pause tied to full sanctions relief and asset unfreezing. White House optimism and technical experts' direct talks reflect trader consensus implying 59.5% odds of agreement by June 30, balancing diplomatic progress against persistent gaps on enrichment limits and verification, with economic coercion accelerating timeline pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,162,911Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...First-round US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad on April 11 concluded without a nuclear deal after 21 hours, but Pakistani mediation has spurred momentum for a second round potentially within days, amid a fragile ceasefire expiring around April 21 and a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz blocking Iranian oil exports. The Trump administration's "final offer" demands a 20-year uranium enrichment suspension, facility dismantlement, and regional de-escalation, while Iran proposes a five-year pause tied to full sanctions relief and asset unfreezing. White House optimism and technical experts' direct talks reflect trader consensus implying 59.5% odds of agreement by June 30, balancing diplomatic progress against persistent gaps on enrichment limits and verification, with economic coercion accelerating timeline pressures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti