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Politica·Primarie

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politica·Primarie

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elaine Luria 86%

James Osyf 7.6%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Burk Stringfellow 3.9%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Elaine Luria 86%

James Osyf 7.6%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Burk Stringfellow 3.9%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Elaine Luria

$1,213 Vol.

86%

James Osyf

$1,097 Vol.

8%

Matt Strickler

$0 Vol.

4%

Burk Stringfellow

$0 Vol.

4%

Nila Devanath

$794 Vol.

3%

Nicolaus Sleister

$0 Vol.

2%

Patrick Mosolf

$1,509 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, fueled by her first-quarter 2026 fundraising haul exceeding $1.75 million—her best ever—with over $2 million cash on hand, far outpacing rivals amid recent Federal Election Commission disclosures. As the district's prior incumbent with strong name recognition in this military-heavy battleground, Luria benefits from key endorsements including EMILYs List, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, and the DCCC's Red to Blue program, signaling party consolidation to flip the seat from Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans. Challengers like James Osyf (7.3%), who suspended but remains listed, and others trail due to fragmented resources and lower visibility, though no public primary polls exist to challenge market positioning. Late surprises remain possible in crowded fields.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,613
Data di fine
16 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, fueled by her first-quarter 2026 fundraising haul exceeding $1.75 million—her best ever—with over $2 million cash on hand, far outpacing rivals amid recent Federal Election Commission disclosures. As the district's prior incumbent with strong name recognition in this military-heavy battleground, Luria benefits from key endorsements including EMILYs List, Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, and the DCCC's Red to Blue program, signaling party consolidation to flip the seat from Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans. Challengers like James Osyf (7.3%), who suspended but remains listed, and others trail due to fragmented resources and lower visibility, though no public primary polls exist to challenge market positioning. Late surprises remain possible in crowded fields.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,613
Data di fine
16 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Domande frequenti

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Elaine Luria" a 86%, seguito da "James Osyf" a 8%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 86¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 86% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Nov 25, 2025. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" è "Elaine Luria" a 86%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 86% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "James Osyf" a 8%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.