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icon for Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?
Politica·Svezia

Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?

icon for Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?
Politica·Svezia

Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?

M + KD + L + C 16%

S + MP 14%

S + MP + C + V 13%

Altro 12%

Polymarket
NUOVO

M + KD + L + C 16%

S + MP 14%

S + MP + C + V 13%

Altro 12%

Polymarket
NUOVO

M + KD + L + C

$95 Vol.

16%

S + MP

$170 Vol.

10%

S + MP + C + V

$218 Vol.

13%

Altro

$54 Vol.

12%

M + KD + L + SD

$98 Vol.

12%

S + MP + V

$144 Vol.

10%

S + M

$43 Vol.

9%

S + MP + C + L

$43 Vol.

8%

M + SD

$43 Vol.

8%

M + KD + L

$64 Vol.

8%

S + C

$84 Vol.

8%

S

$64 Vol.

7%

S + C + V

$64 Vol.

6%

M + KD + SD

$64 Vol.

6%

S + C + L

$64 Vol.

4%

M + KD

$64 Vol.

4%

M

$167 Vol.

4%

S + MP + L

$64 Vol.

3%

S + V

$137 Vol.

2%

S + MP + C + KD

$54 Vol.

2%

S + MP + C

$105 Vol.

41%

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Sweden's September 13 election produced a narrow parliamentary edge for the centre-left bloc over the Tidö parties, leaving the Centre Party as the pivotal swing actor in coalition talks and fragmenting trader probabilities across multiple combinations. Preliminary results showed the Social Democrats-led opposition securing roughly 176 seats to the Moderates-KD-L-SD grouping's 173, with the Centre Party's 25 seats determining whether a majority can form. Persistent policy divides—particularly on taxation, nuclear power, and the Left Party's role—have kept S+MP+C and similar variants in the lead while capping any single option below 25 percent, as traders weigh prolonged negotiations and the risk that neither bloc reaches 175 seats without cross-bloc support. Upcoming confirmation votes and party statements will clarify viable paths.

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”.

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government.

If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Volume
$1,906
Data di fine
1 ago 2027
Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Sweden's September 13 election produced a narrow parliamentary edge for the centre-left bloc over the Tidö parties, leaving the Centre Party as the pivotal swing actor in coalition talks and fragmenting trader probabilities across multiple combinations. Preliminary results showed the Social Democrats-led opposition securing roughly 176 seats to the Moderates-KD-L-SD grouping's 173, with the Centre Party's 25 seats determining whether a majority can form. Persistent policy divides—particularly on taxation, nuclear power, and the Left Party's role—have kept S+MP+C and similar variants in the lead while capping any single option below 25 percent, as traders weigh prolonged negotiations and the risk that neither bloc reaches 175 seats without cross-bloc support. Upcoming confirmation votes and party statements will clarify viable paths.

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”.

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government.

If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Volume
$1,906
Data di fine
1 ago 2027
Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

Correlati

icon for Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

87%
icon for Elezioni parlamentari svedesi: più voti a MP o KD?

Elezioni parlamentari svedesi: più voti a MP o KD?

42%
MP
icon for Elezioni parlamentari svedesi: Più voti a V o a KD?

Elezioni parlamentari svedesi: Più voti a V o a KD?

100%
V

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Domande frequenti

"Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 21 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "S + MP + C" a 41%, seguito da "M + KD + L + C" a 16%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 41¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Sep 14, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?", esplora i 21 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?" è "S + MP + C" a 41%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "M + KD + L + C" a 16%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quale coalizione formerà il prossimo governo svedese?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.