Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd District toward a slight Democratic lean (D+1 Cook PVI), creating a competitive Central Valley seat with Democratic voter registration at 42% versus 26% Republican. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2026 primary with 40.7% but faces Democratic nominee Randy Villegas, who secured 32.4% and early general-election polling leads of 2–4 points. Traders assign an 83% implied probability to the Democratic outcome, reflecting the district's registration edge, Valadao's moderate positioning, and Villegas's primary momentum ahead of the November 3 general election. Historical turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics could still influence the final margin in this toss-up contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-22 House Election Winner
CA-22 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
83%
Republican Party
14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$2,535 Vol.
83%
Republican Party
$5,407 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd District toward a slight Democratic lean (D+1 Cook PVI), creating a competitive Central Valley seat with Democratic voter registration at 42% versus 26% Republican. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2026 primary with 40.7% but faces Democratic nominee Randy Villegas, who secured 32.4% and early general-election polling leads of 2–4 points. Traders assign an 83% implied probability to the Democratic outcome, reflecting the district's registration edge, Valadao's moderate positioning, and Villegas's primary momentum ahead of the November 3 general election. Historical turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics could still influence the final margin in this toss-up contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,942Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd District toward a slight Democratic lean (D+1 Cook PVI), creating a competitive Central Valley seat with Democratic voter registration at 42% versus 26% Republican. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2026 primary with 40.7% but faces Democratic nominee Randy Villegas, who secured 32.4% and early general-election polling leads of 2–4 points. Traders assign an 83% implied probability to the Democratic outcome, reflecting the district's registration edge, Valadao's moderate positioning, and Villegas's primary momentum ahead of the November 3 general election. Historical turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics could still influence the final margin in this toss-up contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,942Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd District toward a slight Democratic lean (D+1 Cook PVI), creating a competitive Central Valley seat with Democratic voter registration at 42% versus 26% Republican. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2026 primary with 40.7% but faces Democratic nominee Randy Villegas, who secured 32.4% and early general-election polling leads of 2–4 points. Traders assign an 83% implied probability to the Democratic outcome, reflecting the district's registration edge, Valadao's moderate positioning, and Villegas's primary momentum ahead of the November 3 general election. Historical turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics could still influence the final margin in this toss-up contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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