President Trump's longstanding pattern of personal attacks via Truth Social and public statements has traders pricing Joe Biden as a near-certain target (94% implied probability) for a public insult by April 30, given Biden's recurring role as a foil in Trump's rhetoric during political transitions and policy disputes. Over the past week, Trump escalated barbs at Pope Leo XIV with a controversial rant and image interpreted as sacrilegious, prompting backlash from Catholic leaders and international figures amid tensions over Iran policy, yet Pope odds sit at 30% post-market creation on April 13. Recent salvos at Tucker Carlson (28%), Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly over Iran war coverage underscore Trump's focus on critics, while high probabilities for Barack Obama (61%) and Keir Starmer (63%) reflect prior feuds; daily posts and potential rallies remain key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$59,625 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Keir Starmer
63%
Barack Obama
67%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
49%
Tucker Carlson
30%
Megyn Kelly
29%
Papa Leone XIV
27%
Alex Jones
15%
Pam Bondi
8%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
Elon Musk
4%
Vladimir Putin
3%
Viktor Orbán
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Xi Jinping
2%
Melania Trump
1%
Candace Owens
43%
$59,625 Vol.
Keir Starmer
$40 Vol.
63%
Barack Obama
$1,683 Vol.
67%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$167 Vol.
49%
Tucker Carlson
$763 Vol.
30%
Megyn Kelly
$0 Vol.
29%
Papa Leone XIV
$1,690 Vol.
27%
Alex Jones
$1,314 Vol.
15%
Pam Bondi
$451 Vol.
8%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$6,037 Vol.
5%
Elon Musk
$842 Vol.
4%
Vladimir Putin
$1,438 Vol.
3%
Viktor Orbán
$3,319 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$3,104 Vol.
2%
Xi Jinping
$6,188 Vol.
2%
Melania Trump
$5,124 Vol.
1%
Candace Owens
$47 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's longstanding pattern of personal attacks via Truth Social and public statements has traders pricing Joe Biden as a near-certain target (94% implied probability) for a public insult by April 30, given Biden's recurring role as a foil in Trump's rhetoric during political transitions and policy disputes. Over the past week, Trump escalated barbs at Pope Leo XIV with a controversial rant and image interpreted as sacrilegious, prompting backlash from Catholic leaders and international figures amid tensions over Iran policy, yet Pope odds sit at 30% post-market creation on April 13. Recent salvos at Tucker Carlson (28%), Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly over Iran war coverage underscore Trump's focus on critics, while high probabilities for Barack Obama (61%) and Keir Starmer (63%) reflect prior feuds; daily posts and potential rallies remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$59,625Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's longstanding pattern of personal attacks via Truth Social and public statements has traders pricing Joe Biden as a near-certain target (94% implied probability) for a public insult by April 30, given Biden's recurring role as a foil in Trump's rhetoric during political transitions and policy disputes. Over the past week, Trump escalated barbs at Pope Leo XIV with a controversial rant and image interpreted as sacrilegious, prompting backlash from Catholic leaders and international figures amid tensions over Iran policy, yet Pope odds sit at 30% post-market creation on April 13. Recent salvos at Tucker Carlson (28%), Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly over Iran war coverage underscore Trump's focus on critics, while high probabilities for Barack Obama (61%) and Keir Starmer (63%) reflect prior feuds; daily posts and potential rallies remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$59,625Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
President Trump's longstanding pattern of personal attacks via Truth Social and public statements has traders pricing Joe Biden as a near-certain target (94% implied probability) for a public insult by April 30, given Biden's recurring role as a foil in Trump's rhetoric during political transitions and policy disputes. Over the past week, Trump escalated barbs at Pope Leo XIV with a controversial rant and image interpreted as sacrilegious, prompting backlash from Catholic leaders and international figures amid tensions over Iran policy, yet Pope odds sit at 30% post-market creation on April 13. Recent salvos at Tucker Carlson (28%), Candace Owens, and Megyn Kelly over Iran war coverage underscore Trump's focus on critics, while high probabilities for Barack Obama (61%) and Keir Starmer (63%) reflect prior feuds; daily posts and potential rallies remain key catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti