Trader consensus implies an 89.5% probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of such events and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. No Cat 5 has struck the continental U.S. since Hurricane Michael in 2018, despite the hyperactive 2025 season producing three Cat 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that spared the U.S. entirely, with Melissa hitting Jamaica instead. With only the 2026 season remaining, Colorado State University and NOAA's early April forecasts predict below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—driven by an emerging El Niño expected to suppress shear and storm formation. Upcoming NOAA outlooks in May and June model runs could refine this, but climatological steering patterns and low baseline odds (four events since 1851) anchor the strong "No" positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualche uragano di categoria 5 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Qualche uragano di categoria 5 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Sì
$131,442 Vol.
$131,442 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$131,442 Vol.
$131,442 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus implies an 89.5% probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of such events and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. No Cat 5 has struck the continental U.S. since Hurricane Michael in 2018, despite the hyperactive 2025 season producing three Cat 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that spared the U.S. entirely, with Melissa hitting Jamaica instead. With only the 2026 season remaining, Colorado State University and NOAA's early April forecasts predict below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—driven by an emerging El Niño expected to suppress shear and storm formation. Upcoming NOAA outlooks in May and June model runs could refine this, but climatological steering patterns and low baseline odds (four events since 1851) anchor the strong "No" positioning.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$131,442Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus implies an 89.5% probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of such events and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. No Cat 5 has struck the continental U.S. since Hurricane Michael in 2018, despite the hyperactive 2025 season producing three Cat 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that spared the U.S. entirely, with Melissa hitting Jamaica instead. With only the 2026 season remaining, Colorado State University and NOAA's early April forecasts predict below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—driven by an emerging El Niño expected to suppress shear and storm formation. Upcoming NOAA outlooks in May and June model runs could refine this, but climatological steering patterns and low baseline odds (four events since 1851) anchor the strong "No" positioning.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$131,442Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 89.5% probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of such events and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. No Cat 5 has struck the continental U.S. since Hurricane Michael in 2018, despite the hyperactive 2025 season producing three Cat 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that spared the U.S. entirely, with Melissa hitting Jamaica instead. With only the 2026 season remaining, Colorado State University and NOAA's early April forecasts predict below-normal activity—13 named storms, six hurricanes, two majors—driven by an emerging El Niño expected to suppress shear and storm formation. Upcoming NOAA outlooks in May and June model runs could refine this, but climatological steering patterns and low baseline odds (four events since 1851) anchor the strong "No" positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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