Trader consensus heavily favors no repeal of presidential term limits under the 22nd Amendment, reflecting insurmountable constitutional barriers: two-thirds supermajority approval in both houses of Congress—requiring roughly 290 House and 67 Senate votes—followed by ratification by 38 states, thresholds far beyond Republican majorities in the 119th Congress. No bills targeting the amendment have advanced, with President Trump's recent focus instead on imposing congressional term limits (six years House, 12 Senate) to drain the swamp, as highlighted in early April statements. Fringe legal arguments, like Alan Dershowitz's March op-ed claiming a third term loophole, gained no traction amid midterm preparations and foreign policy priorities such as Iran tensions. Absent seismic shifts like unexpected GOP supermajorities post-November elections, repeal remains structurally improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAny law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Mercato aperto: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no repeal of presidential term limits under the 22nd Amendment, reflecting insurmountable constitutional barriers: two-thirds supermajority approval in both houses of Congress—requiring roughly 290 House and 67 Senate votes—followed by ratification by 38 states, thresholds far beyond Republican majorities in the 119th Congress. No bills targeting the amendment have advanced, with President Trump's recent focus instead on imposing congressional term limits (six years House, 12 Senate) to drain the swamp, as highlighted in early April statements. Fringe legal arguments, like Alan Dershowitz's March op-ed claiming a third term loophole, gained no traction amid midterm preparations and foreign policy priorities such as Iran tensions. Absent seismic shifts like unexpected GOP supermajorities post-November elections, repeal remains structurally improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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